ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga 2 Georgia Round 32 2026

Shturmi vs Gori

Shturmi Home · Elo 1,590
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gori Away · Elo 1,532
Sartichala Central Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shturmi win
Shturmi winPick
55.8%
Draw
23.3%
Gori win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.9%
No54.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Shturmi history59 matches
Gori history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Shturmi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shturmi are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,532. On rating alone Shturmi would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Shturmi score more

    1.80 goals a game over 59 matches for Shturmi, against 1.43 over 56 for Gori.

  • Shturmi concede fewer

    Shturmi concede 0.76 a game, Gori 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Shturmi matches, against 41% for Gori. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shturmi
Gori@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1589.8
ELO
1532.4
59
ELO · Matches
56
1589.8
Current Team ELO
1532.4
1532.4
Current Opponent ELO
1589.8
57.34
Current ELO Difference
-57.34
0.58
Expected score
0.42
59
History Matches
56
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
55.12
Overperformance
51.75
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
56
1.95
PPG
1.66
55.9%
Win rate
46.4%
27.1%
Draw rate
26.8%
16.9%
Loss rate
26.8%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.1%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
2.25
PPG
1.31
71.4%
Win rate
31.0%
10.7%
Draw rate
37.9%
17.9%
Loss rate
31.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
31.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.43
76.3%
Scoring rate
67.9%
39.0%
BTTS rate
46.4%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.03
82.1%
Scoring rate
58.6%
39.3%
BTTS rate
44.8%
0.91
Goals for per game
0.77
63.6%
Scoring rate
45.5%
36.4%
BTTS rate
40.9%
59
History Matches
56
1.80
Goals Mean
1.43
1.82
Goals Std
1.49
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.76
Goals against per game
1.05
47.5%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.14
50.0%
Conceding rate
72.4%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.23
50.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
59
History Matches
56
0.76
Conceded Mean
1.05
0.96
Conceded Std
1.08
22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
52.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
52.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
52.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
56
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.93
10.82
Stability score
3.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
55
21
Lead Matches
18
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.96
12
Trailing Matches
14
50.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.50
PPG
0.86
36.4%
Win rate
18.2%
40.9%
Draw rate
31.8%
22.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
18.2%
Over 2.5 rate
31.8%
4.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.86
0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.45
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.37
59.35
Portability Score
45.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO57.34
PPG0.29
GF0.37
GA-0.29
PPG0.64
PPG0.94
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate6.5%
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score7.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.64
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.64
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score13.83
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO57.34
Current Opponent ELO-57.34
Current ELO Difference114.7
Expected score0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shturmi

L
Samtredia4–1Shturmi31 Oct · away
Pick: Shturmi 36% · missed
W
Shturmi1–0Sioni24 Oct · home
Pick: Shturmi 47% · hit
L
Merani Martvili3–1Shturmi17 Oct · away
Pick: Shturmi 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gori

D
Gori0–0Aragvi Dusheti31 Oct · home
Pick: Gori 39% · missed
W
Gori1–0Samtredia24 Oct · home
Pick: Gori 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shturmi and Gori meet in Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Sartichala Central Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shturmi win 55.8%, draw 23.3%, Gori win 21.0%. The pick is Shturmi win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 45.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.