ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga 2 Georgia Round 32 2026

Telavi vs Sioni

Telavi Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sioni Away · Elo 1,489
Kavkasioni Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Telavi win
Telavi winPick
48.9%
Draw
27.2%
Sioni win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%

How much we know

Telavi history63 matches
Sioni history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Telavi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Telavi are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,489. On rating alone Telavi would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Sioni score more

    1.00 goals a game over 63 matches for Telavi, against 1.29 over 62 for Sioni.

  • Defences are close

    Telavi concede 1.25 a game, Sioni 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Telavi matches, against 45% for Sioni. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Telavi
Sioni@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.1
ELO
1489.2
63
ELO · Matches
62
1543.1
Current Team ELO
1489.2
1489.2
Current Opponent ELO
1543.1
53.91
Current ELO Difference
-53.91
0.58
Expected score
0.42
63
History Matches
62
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.65
Overperformance
49.38
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
0.20
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
62
1.29
PPG
1.26
33.3%
Win rate
30.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
33.9%
38.1%
Loss rate
35.5%
63.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
1.52
PPG
1.13
38.7%
Win rate
25.8%
35.5%
Draw rate
35.5%
25.8%
Loss rate
38.7%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
32.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.29
65.1%
Scoring rate
71.0%
41.3%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.13
74.2%
Scoring rate
61.3%
41.9%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.23
77.3%
Scoring rate
77.3%
36.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
62
1.00
Goals Mean
1.29
0.99
Goals Std
1.21
65.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.0%
22.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.21
65.1%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.26
51.6%
Conceding rate
71.0%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.14
45.5%
Conceding rate
63.6%
63
History Matches
62
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.39
Conceded Std
1.15
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.3%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.62
Stability score
0.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
61
17
Lead Matches
16
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.88
15
Trailing Matches
19
20.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
47
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.82
PPG
1.27
50.0%
Win rate
31.8%
31.8%
Draw rate
31.8%
18.2%
Loss rate
36.4%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.82
Current Competition PPG
1.27
0.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.09
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.06
55.00
Portability Score
94.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.91
PPG0.03
GF-0.29
GA0.04
PPG0.55
PPG0.39
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.96
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.38
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.27
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.76
Portability Score-39.29
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO53.91
Current Opponent ELO-53.91
Current ELO Difference107.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Telavi

L
Merani Martvili2–0Telavi31 Oct · away
Pick: Telavi 40% · missed
D
Telavi1–1Kolkheti Poti24 Oct · home
Pick: Telavi 55% · missed
L
Gareji2–1Telavi17 Oct · away
Pick: Gareji 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sioni

L
Shturmi1–0Sioni24 Oct · away
Pick: Shturmi 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Telavi and Sioni meet in Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Kavkasioni Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Telavi win 48.9%, draw 27.2%, Sioni win 23.8%. The pick is Telavi win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.4%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.