Osaka vs Roasso Kumamoto
Osaka
Full time
2–1
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 05:00 UTC
Roasso Kumamoto
What we said before kickoff Result: Osaka win
Osaka winPick Result
43.2%
Draw
26.3%
Roasso Kumamoto win
30.5%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickOsaka win · 43.2%
What happenedOsaka win · we gave it 43.2%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.0%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 50.9%
What happenedYes · 2–1
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Osaka win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
43%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.3
on average A pick at 43% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalT. Kitsui · assist T. Shimada
57' 63'
SubstitutionE. Matsuda off · R. Ishida on
63'
SubstitutionBae Jeong-Min off · O. Ishihara on
63'
SubstitutionR. Watanabe off · Y. Katori on
67'
SubstitutionS. Nagai off · H. Ozawa on
SubstitutionT. Shimada off · K. Isa on
71' SubstitutionR. Kubo off · Y. Natsukawa on
71' 76'
SubstitutionK. Fujii off · Y. Yoshioka on
SubstitutionT. Toya off · S. Nagano on
79' SubstitutionT. Kitsui off · H. Toriyama on
79' 85'
GoalH. Ozawa · assist Y. Katori
SubstitutionG. Yoshida off · Vinicius Souza on
90' GoalK. Isa · assist Y. Natsukawa
90+2' Lineups
Published about an hour before kickoff
Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.
Match stats
Osaka left, Roasso Kumamoto right
Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.
Both teams to score
Yes49.1%
No50.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%
How much we know
Osaka history67 matches
Roasso Kumamoto history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 05:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–1Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Osaka are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Osaka are rated 52 Elo points higher
Elo 1,496 against 1,445. On rating alone Osaka would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Osaka score more
1.30 goals a game over 67 matches for Osaka, against 1.01 over 70 for Roasso Kumamoto.
-
Osaka concede fewer
Osaka concede 1.01 a game, Roasso Kumamoto 1.37.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Osaka matches, against 41% for Roasso Kumamoto. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Osaka
Roasso Kumamoto
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1496.4
ELO
1444.7
67
ELO · Matches
70
1496.4
Current Team ELO
1444.7
1444.7
Current Opponent ELO
1496.4
51.67
Current ELO Difference
-51.67
0.57
Expected score
0.43
67
History Matches
70
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.72
Overperformance
46.27
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
2.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.70
1.80
Goals for per game
0.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
67
Matches
70
1.52
PPG
1.06
40.3%
Win rate
27.1%
31.3%
Draw rate
24.3%
28.4%
Loss rate
48.6%
62.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
39
1.68
PPG
1.00
47.1%
Win rate
23.1%
26.5%
Draw rate
30.8%
26.5%
Loss rate
46.2%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
34
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.01
70.1%
Scoring rate
64.3%
47.8%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.03
73.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
41.2%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.30
Goals Mean
1.01
1.32
Goals Std
0.95
70.1%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
32.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
5.7%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.37
65.7%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.38
58.8%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
67
History Matches
70
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.37
0.94
Conceded Std
1.24
28.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
67
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.57
1.03
Stability score
4.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
66
Eligible Matches
67
9
Lead Matches
14
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.74
20
Trailing Matches
23
45.0%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.83
Rest days
73.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.93
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.78
56.29
Portability Score
64.15
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
67
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO51.67
PPG0.47
GF0.28
GA-0.36
PPG1.00
PPG0.68
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate5.9%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.75
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-3.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate10.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-7.87
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO51.67
Current Opponent ELO-51.67
Current ELO Difference103.3
Expected score0.15
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Osaka
L
FC Gifu1–0Osaka31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gifu 53% · hit W
Osaka2–1Kagoshima United24 Oct · home
Pick: Kagoshima United 40% · missed W
Osaka2–0Nara Club21 Oct · home
Pick: Osaka 58% · hit L
Kitakyushu3–1Osaka17 Oct · away
Pick: Kitakyushu 37% · hit D
Renofa Yamaguchi0–0Osaka30 Aug · away
Pick: Osaka 39% · missed Roasso Kumamoto
D
Kagoshima United1–1Roasso Kumamoto31 Oct · away
Pick: Kagoshima United 54% · missed W
Roasso Kumamoto2–1FC Gifu25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gifu 51% · missed W
Roasso Kumamoto3–0Gainare Tottori21 Oct · home
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto 49% · hit W
Kamatamare Sanuki0–3Roasso Kumamoto18 Oct · away
Pick: Kamatamare Sanuki 39% · missed W
Kochi United0–2Roasso Kumamoto30 Aug · away
Pick: Roasso Kumamoto 49% · hit Match report
Osaka and Roasso Kumamoto finished 2–1 in J3 League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Osaka win 43.2%, draw 26.3%, Roasso Kumamoto win 30.5%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.