ScoreProb
Second League North Macedonia Round 11 2026

Osogovo vs FK Rabotnicki

Osogovo Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FK Rabotnicki Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Rabotnicki win
Osogovo win
32.9%
Draw
24.4%
FK Rabotnicki winPick
42.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

Osogovo history52 matches
FK Rabotnicki history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FK Rabotnicki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Osogovo are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,484. On rating alone Osogovo would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 52 matches for Osogovo, against 1.55 over 60 for FK Rabotnicki.

  • Osogovo concede fewer

    Osogovo concede 0.94 a game, FK Rabotnicki 1.45.

  • FK Rabotnicki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Osogovo matches, against 53% for FK Rabotnicki. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Osogovo
FK Rabotnicki@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.1
ELO
1483.6
52
ELO · Matches
60
1536.1
Current Team ELO
1483.6
1483.6
Current Opponent ELO
1536.1
52.46
Current ELO Difference
-52.46
0.57
Expected score
0.43
52
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.42
Overperformance
49.62
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.90
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
2.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
60
1.58
PPG
1.18
44.2%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.3%
30.8%
Loss rate
48.3%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
28
1.65
PPG
0.79
46.2%
Win rate
17.9%
26.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
26.9%
Loss rate
57.1%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.58
26
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.55
63.5%
Scoring rate
63.3%
32.7%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.68
65.4%
Scoring rate
64.3%
30.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
3.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
52
History Matches
60
1.44
Goals Mean
1.55
1.70
Goals Std
2.48
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.45
53.8%
Conceding rate
71.7%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.68
46.2%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
52
History Matches
60
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.10
Conceded Std
1.20
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
60
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.88
2.60
Stability score
6.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
59
14
Lead Matches
18
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.85
10
Trailing Matches
25
30.0%
Non-loss rate
12.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.80
Portability PPG Range
1.00
60.47
Portability Score
56.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO52.46
PPG0.39
GF-0.11
GA-0.51
PPG-3.00
PPG0.87
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate36.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.78
Scored 1+ rate0.1%
Scored 2+ rate3.2%
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.79
Stability score-3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate15.1%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate18.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score3.84
Rest days-6.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO52.46
Current Opponent ELO-52.46
Current ELO Difference104.9
Expected score0.15
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Osogovo

D
Makedonija GjP0–0Osogovo1 Nov · away
Pick: Makedonija GjP 54% · missed
W
Osogovo3–1Akademija Pandev24 Oct · home
Pick: Akademija Pandev 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FK Rabotnicki

W
FK Rabotnicki3–1Belasica1 Nov · home
Pick: FK Rabotnicki 47% · hit
W
FK Rabotnicki3–2Sasa28 Oct · home
Pick: FK Rabotnicki 63% · hit
L
Ohrid1–0FK Rabotnicki24 Oct · away
Pick: FK Rabotnicki 39% · missed
W
Vardar Negotino0–8FK Rabotnicki14 Oct · away
Pick: FK Rabotnicki 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Osogovo and FK Rabotnicki meet in Second League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Osogovo win 32.9%, draw 24.4%, FK Rabotnicki win 42.7%. The pick is FK Rabotnicki win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.