ScoreProb
Second League North Macedonia Round 11 2026

Belasica vs Shkupi 1927

Belasica Home · Elo 1,588
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shkupi 1927 Away · Elo 1,274
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Belasica win
Belasica winPick
89.5%
Draw
7.1%
Shkupi 1927 win
3.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes25.5%
No74.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.9%
Under 2.522.1%

How much we know

Belasica history61 matches
Shkupi 1927 history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (89.5%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Belasica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Belasica are rated 314 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,274. On rating alone Belasica would be expected to take 86% of the points on offer.

  • Belasica score far more

    1.57 goals a game over 61 matches for Belasica, against 0.72 over 54 for Shkupi 1927.

  • Belasica concede fewer

    Belasica concede 0.79 a game, Shkupi 1927 3.02.

  • Shkupi 1927 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Belasica matches, against 67% for Shkupi 1927. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belasica
Shkupi 1927@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.1
ELO
1273.8
61
ELO · Matches
54
1588.1
Current Team ELO
1273.8
1273.8
Current Opponent ELO
1588.1
314.3
Current ELO Difference
-314.3
0.86
Expected score
0.14
61
History Matches
54
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.22
55.50
Overperformance
34.29
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.00
0.00
Goals against per game
4.80
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.10
0.70
Goals against per game
4.90
70.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.10
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
54
1.75
PPG
0.39
52.5%
Win rate
9.3%
18.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
29.5%
Loss rate
79.6%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
23.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
30
1.58
PPG
0.40
48.4%
Win rate
10.0%
12.9%
Draw rate
10.0%
38.7%
Loss rate
80.0%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
31
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
0.72
72.1%
Scoring rate
44.4%
37.7%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.65
Goals for per game
0.73
71.0%
Scoring rate
43.3%
38.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
61
History Matches
54
1.57
Goals Mean
0.72
1.69
Goals Std
0.93
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
44.4%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.79
Goals against per game
3.02
55.7%
Conceding rate
90.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
3.30
61.3%
Conceding rate
90.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
54
0.79
Conceded Mean
3.02
0.85
Conceded Std
2.02
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
72.2%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
55.6%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
3.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
56.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
56.7%
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.59
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.33
8.30
Stability score
41.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
53
14
Lead Matches
8
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.58
10
Trailing Matches
32
30.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.32
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.34
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.90
64.62
Portability Score
52.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO314.3
PPG1.37
GF0.85
GA-2.23
PPG3.00
PPG1.18
PPG3.00
PPG2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate35.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate28.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.85
Goals Std0.76
Scored 1+ rate27.7%
Scored 2+ rate15.5%
Scored 3+ rate15.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.91
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-2.23
Conceded Std-1.17
Clean-sheet rate35.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.54
Conceded 3+ rate-0.51
Venue Conceded Mean-2.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-4.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.92
History Matches7
Result entropy0.33
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-32.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate35.7%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-22
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score11.91
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.60
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.08
Current Team ELO314.3
Current Opponent ELO-314.3
Current ELO Difference628.6
Expected score0.72
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance21.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Belasica

L
FK Rabotnicki3–1Belasica1 Nov · away
Pick: FK Rabotnicki 47% · hit
L
Struga2–0Belasica28 Oct · away
Pick: Struga 53% · hit
D
Belasica1–1Makedonija GjP24 Oct · home
Pick: Belasica 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Shkupi 1927

L
Shkupi 19270–2Kamjani24 Oct · home
Pick: Kamjani 80% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Belasica and Shkupi 1927 meet in Second League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Belasica win 89.5%, draw 7.1%, Shkupi 1927 win 3.3%. The pick is Belasica win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.9%. Both teams to score: 25.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.