ScoreProb
Second League North Macedonia Round 11 2026

Novaci vs Makedonija GjP

Novaci Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Makedonija GjP Away · Elo 1,482
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Makedonija GjP win
Novaci win
35.1%
Draw
25.8%
Makedonija GjP winPick
39.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Novaci history53 matches
Makedonija GjP history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Makedonija GjP are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,482. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 53 matches for Novaci, against 1.35 over 57 for Makedonija GjP.

  • Defences are close

    Novaci concede 1.19 a game, Makedonija GjP 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Novaci matches, against 42% for Makedonija GjP. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Novaci
Makedonija GjP@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.9
ELO
1481.6
53
ELO · Matches
57
1500.9
Current Team ELO
1481.6
1481.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.9
19.32
Current ELO Difference
-19.32
0.53
Expected score
0.47
53
History Matches
57
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.99
Overperformance
48.89
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
57
1.40
PPG
1.30
39.6%
Win rate
33.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
29.8%
39.6%
Loss rate
36.8%
64.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.8%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
28
1.96
PPG
1.07
57.7%
Win rate
21.4%
23.1%
Draw rate
42.9%
19.2%
Loss rate
35.7%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.23
26
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.35
62.3%
Scoring rate
61.4%
32.1%
BTTS rate
38.6%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.25
73.1%
Scoring rate
53.6%
26.9%
BTTS rate
32.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.34
Goals Mean
1.35
1.54
Goals Std
2.10
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
61.4%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.1%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.21
56.6%
Conceding rate
61.4%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.29
42.3%
Conceding rate
53.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.39
Conceded Std
1.46
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
57.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
57.7%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
2.26
Goal Difference Std
2.70
3.52
Stability score
0.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
14
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
18
8.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.77
66.41
Portability Score
61.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.32
PPG0.10
GF-0.01
GA-0.02
PPG-2.00
PPG0.89
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.56
Scored 1+ rate0.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score3.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score5.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO19.32
Current Opponent ELO-19.32
Current ELO Difference38.64
Expected score0.06
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Novaci

L
Skopje1–0Novaci28 Oct · away
Pick: Skopje 56% · hit
L
Novaci0–2Pelister24 Oct · home
Pick: Novaci 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Makedonija GjP

D
Makedonija GjP0–0Osogovo1 Nov · home
Pick: Makedonija GjP 54% · missed
D
Belasica1–1Makedonija GjP24 Oct · away
Pick: Belasica 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Novaci and Makedonija GjP meet in Second League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Novaci win 35.1%, draw 25.8%, Makedonija GjP win 39.1%. The pick is Makedonija GjP win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.