ScoreProb
Second League North Macedonia Round 11 2026

Ohrid vs Kamjani

Ohrid Home · Elo 1,600
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kamjani Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ohrid win
Ohrid winPick
60.8%
Draw
24.7%
Kamjani win
14.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.1%
No55.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%

How much we know

Ohrid history55 matches
Kamjani history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Ohrid are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ohrid are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,600 against 1,528. On rating alone Ohrid would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.91 goals a game over 55 matches for Ohrid, against 1.75 over 4 for Kamjani.

  • Kamjani concede fewer

    Ohrid concede 1.02 a game, Kamjani 0.50.

  • Ohrid games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Ohrid matches, against 25% for Kamjani. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ohrid
Kamjani@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1600.4
ELO
1528.1
55
ELO · Matches
4
1600.4
Current Team ELO
1528.1
1528.1
Current Opponent ELO
1600.4
72.23
Current ELO Difference
-72.23
0.60
Expected score
0.40
55
History Matches
4
0.09
Residual Mean
0.35
56.62
Overperformance
55.86
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
2.50
3.00
Goals for per game
1.75
0.40
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
10
Matches
4
2.20
PPG
2.50
2.40
Goals for per game
1.75
0.70
Goals against per game
0.50
70.0%
Win rate
75.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.75
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.43
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
2.50
52.7%
Win rate
75.0%
21.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.5%
Loss rate
0.0%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
2
2.21
PPG
2.00
64.3%
Win rate
50.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
50.0%
7.1%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
28
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.75
76.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
43.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.50
78.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
39.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
4
1.91
Goals Mean
1.75
2.18
Goals Std
0.43
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
21.8%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.57
Goals against per game
0.50
46.4%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
4
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.50
1.36
Conceded Std
0.50
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
0.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
4
0.93
Result entropy
0.51
2.66
Goal Difference Std
0.83
7.34
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
4
19
Lead Matches
4
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
0
42.9%
Non-loss rate
—
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.50
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
1
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.45
Portability PPG Std
—
1.07
Portability PPG Range
—
52.86
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO72.23
PPG-0.70
GF0.16
GA0.52
PPG1.00
PPG0.21
PPG0.50
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches51
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate23.6%
History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate21.4%
History Matches51
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std1.74
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate21.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Std1.81
History Matches51
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.86
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches51
Result entropy0.41
Goal Difference Std1.83
Stability score-41.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.41
Eligible Matches50
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate14.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches14
Halftime Coverage Matches50
First Half Goals For Mean-0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Rest days6.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches29
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.03
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO72.23
Current Opponent ELO-72.23
Current ELO Difference144.5
Expected score0.20
History Matches51
Residual Mean-0.26
Overperformance0.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ohrid

W
Ohrid1–0FK Rabotnicki24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Rabotnicki 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kamjani

W
Shkupi 19270–2Kamjani24 Oct · away
Pick: Kamjani 80% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ohrid and Kamjani meet in Second League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ohrid win 60.8%, draw 24.7%, Kamjani win 14.5%. The pick is Ohrid win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.0%. Both teams to score: 44.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.