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1. Division Belarus Round 33 2026

Ostrovets FC vs Niva

Ostrovets FC Home · Elo 1,481
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Niva Away · Elo 1,575
City Stadium, Ostrovets Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Niva win
Ostrovets FC win
27.2%
Draw
20.1%
Niva winPick
52.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.2%
No36.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.1%
Under 2.531.9%

How much we know

Ostrovets FC history59 matches
Niva history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Niva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Niva are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,481. On rating alone Niva would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Niva score more

    1.59 goals a game over 59 matches for Ostrovets FC, against 2.00 over 64 for Niva.

  • Ostrovets FC concede fewer

    Ostrovets FC concede 1.44 a game, Niva 1.70.

  • Niva games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Ostrovets FC matches, against 72% for Niva. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ostrovets FC
Niva@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.2
ELO
1575.4
59
ELO · Matches
64
1481.2
Current Team ELO
1575.4
1575.4
Current Opponent ELO
1481.2
-94.26
Current ELO Difference
94.26
0.37
Expected score
0.63
59
History Matches
64
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.68
Overperformance
53.81
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.30
1.20
Goals for per game
2.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
64
1.34
PPG
1.64
37.3%
Win rate
46.9%
22.0%
Draw rate
23.4%
40.7%
Loss rate
29.7%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
71.9%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
51.6%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
35
1.14
PPG
1.54
31.0%
Win rate
45.7%
20.7%
Draw rate
17.1%
48.3%
Loss rate
37.1%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
29
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
2.00
78.0%
Scoring rate
84.4%
62.7%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.94
72.4%
Scoring rate
77.1%
62.1%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.19
Goals for per game
2.43
81.0%
Scoring rate
95.2%
71.4%
BTTS rate
71.4%
59
History Matches
64
1.59
Goals Mean
2.00
1.60
Goals Std
1.60
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.4%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
59.4%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.70
78.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.86
79.3%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.24
76.2%
Conceding rate
76.2%
59
History Matches
64
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.11
Conceded Std
1.58
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.9%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
2.07
Goal Difference Std
2.61
2.88
Stability score
3.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
63
16
Lead Matches
22
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
95.5%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.97
17
Trailing Matches
23
17.6%
Non-loss rate
39.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
82.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.24
20
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.14
PPG
2.00
23.8%
Win rate
61.9%
42.9%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
23.8%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
81.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.14
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.19
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.31
Portability PPG Range
2.00
76.24
Portability Score
39.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-94.26
PPG-0.30
GF-0.41
GA-0.26
PPG-0.86
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.47
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.54
Stability score-1.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.48
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.69
Portability Score36.33
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO-94.26
Current Opponent ELO94.26
Current ELO Difference-188.5
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ostrovets FC

D
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk2–2Ostrovets FC7 Nov · away
Pick: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 49% · missed
W
Ostrovets FC2–1FC Slutsk1 Nov · home
Pick: FC Slutsk 41% · missed
W
Ostrovets FC2–0Volna29 Aug · home
Pick: Ostrovets FC 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Niva

W
BATE II2–4Niva31 Oct · away
Pick: Niva 62% · hit
D
Niva1–1Uni Minsk25 Oct · home
Pick: Niva 66% · missed
W
Niva6–0Osipovichy30 Aug · home
Pick: Niva 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ostrovets FC and Niva meet in 1. Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at City Stadium, Ostrovets. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ostrovets FC win 27.2%, draw 20.1%, Niva win 52.6%. The pick is Niva win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.1%. Both teams to score: 63.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.