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1. Division Belarus Round 33 2026

Slonim vs Lida

Slonim Home · Elo 1,440
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lida Away · Elo 1,543
Yunost Stadium, Slonim Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Slonim win
Slonim winPick
44.4%
Draw
20.3%
Lida win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.9%
No38.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%

How much we know

Slonim history59 matches
Lida history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Slonim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lida are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,440. On rating alone Lida would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Lida score more

    1.36 goals a game over 59 matches for Slonim, against 2.05 over 60 for Lida.

  • Lida concede fewer

    Slonim concede 1.95 a game, Lida 1.50.

  • Lida games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Slonim matches, against 78% for Lida. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slonim
Lida@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1440.0
ELO
1543.0
59
ELO · Matches
60
1440.0
Current Team ELO
1543.0
1543.0
Current Opponent ELO
1440.0
-103.0
Current ELO Difference
103.0
0.36
Expected score
0.64
59
History Matches
60
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
46.08
Overperformance
52.33
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
60
1.02
PPG
1.68
30.5%
Win rate
53.3%
10.2%
Draw rate
8.3%
59.3%
Loss rate
38.3%
88.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.3%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
78.3%
39.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
0.93
PPG
1.52
25.0%
Win rate
48.4%
17.9%
Draw rate
6.5%
57.1%
Loss rate
45.2%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
77.4%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
54.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
2.05
64.4%
Scoring rate
86.7%
52.5%
BTTS rate
70.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
2.10
64.3%
Scoring rate
87.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
67.7%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.90
76.2%
Scoring rate
90.5%
52.4%
BTTS rate
85.7%
59
History Matches
60
1.36
Goals Mean
2.05
1.41
Goals Std
1.47
64.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
39.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.3%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.95
Goals against per game
1.50
83.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.61
85.7%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.62
71.4%
Conceding rate
90.5%
59
History Matches
60
1.95
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.57
Conceded Std
1.13
57.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.3%
28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
60
0.82
Result entropy
0.83
2.38
Goal Difference Std
2.03
17.68
Stability score
17.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
60
14
Lead Matches
23
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.93
23
Trailing Matches
17
8.7%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.85
Rest days
82.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
24
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.71
PPG
1.86
52.4%
Win rate
57.1%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.2%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
81.0%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.71
Current Competition PPG
1.86
0.62
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.25
49.99
Portability Score
79.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-103.0
PPG-0.67
GF-0.69
GA0.45
PPG-0.14
PPG-0.59
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate22.3%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate22.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score0.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-29.94
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.97
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-103.0
Current Opponent ELO103.0
Current ELO Difference-206.0
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slonim

L
Slonim0–3FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk31 Oct · home
Pick: Slonim 42% · missed
L
FC Slutsk2–0Slonim24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Slutsk 53% · hit
L
Slonim1–2Orsha30 Aug · home
Pick: Slonim 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lida

W
Lida3–1BATE II7 Nov · home
Pick: Lida 65% · hit
W
Uni Minsk1–3Lida31 Oct · away
Pick: Lida 44% · hit
W
Lida1–0Molodechno-DYuSSh 424 Oct · home
Pick: Lida 54% · hit
W
Shakhter Soligorsk1–2Lida29 Aug · away
Pick: Shakhter Soligorsk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Slonim and Lida meet in 1. Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Yunost Stadium, Slonim. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Slonim win 44.4%, draw 20.3%, Lida win 35.3%. The pick is Slonim win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 61.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.