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WE League Japan Round 9 2026

Parceiro Nagano W vs Nojima Stella W

Parceiro Nagano W Home · Elo 1,360
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nojima Stella W Away · Elo 1,485
Nagano U Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nojima Stella W win
Parceiro Nagano W win
18.3%
Draw
19.7%
Nojima Stella W winPick
62.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Parceiro Nagano W history34 matches
Nojima Stella W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.0%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Nojima Stella W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nojima Stella W are rated 125 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,485 against 1,360. On rating alone Nojima Stella W would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Nojima Stella W score far more

    0.79 goals a game over 34 matches for Parceiro Nagano W, against 1.35 over 34 for Nojima Stella W.

  • Nojima Stella W concede fewer

    Parceiro Nagano W concede 2.32 a game, Nojima Stella W 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Parceiro Nagano W matches, against 59% for Nojima Stella W. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Parceiro Nagano W
Nojima Stella W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1359.7
ELO
1484.7
34
ELO · Matches
34
1359.7
Current Team ELO
1484.7
1484.7
Current Opponent ELO
1359.7
-124.9
Current ELO Difference
124.9
0.33
Expected score
0.67
34
History Matches
34
-0.20
Residual Mean
-0.02
37.23
Overperformance
48.66
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.80
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
3.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
34
0.53
PPG
1.24
11.8%
Win rate
35.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
17.6%
70.6%
Loss rate
47.1%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
17
0.65
PPG
1.18
17.6%
Win rate
29.4%
11.8%
Draw rate
29.4%
70.6%
Loss rate
41.2%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.79
Goals for per game
1.35
55.9%
Scoring rate
70.6%
52.9%
BTTS rate
41.2%
0.76
Goals for per game
1.41
52.9%
Scoring rate
70.6%
47.1%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
34
History Matches
34
0.79
Goals Mean
1.35
0.83
Goals Std
1.21
55.9%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
20.6%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
0.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.32
Goals against per game
1.53
94.1%
Conceding rate
64.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.71
94.1%
Conceding rate
70.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
34
History Matches
34
2.32
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.47
Conceded Std
1.50
67.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
35.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
34
0.73
Result entropy
0.94
1.75
Goal Difference Std
2.32
26.84
Stability score
6.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
34
5
Lead Matches
11
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
12
11.8%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
1.03
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.83
Rest days
83.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
20
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.14
78.57
Portability Score
88.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-124.9
PPG-0.71
GF-0.56
GA0.79
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.53
PPG-2.20
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.79
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate20.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.57
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score20.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.42
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate3.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-9.43
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-124.9
Current Opponent ELO124.9
Current ELO Difference-249.8
Expected score-0.34
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-11.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Parceiro Nagano W

D
Parceiro Nagano W2–2Cerezo Osaka W7 Nov · home
Pick: Cerezo Osaka W 45% · missed
L
Parceiro Nagano W0–1Omiya Ardija Ventus W28 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 42% · hit
L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W1–0Parceiro Nagano W25 Oct · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 59% · hit
D
Albirex Niigata W0–0Parceiro Nagano W17 Oct · away
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 67% · missed
L
Parceiro Nagano W1–4Tokyo Verdy Beleza W29 Aug · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 66% · hit

Nojima Stella W

W
Nojima Stella W1–0Tokyo Verdy Beleza W7 Nov · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 40% · missed
D
JEF United W0–0Nojima Stella W31 Oct · away
Pick: Nojima Stella W 40% · missed
D
Vegalta Sendai W0–0Nojima Stella W24 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai W 40% · missed
W
Nojima Stella W1–0Albirex Niigata W21 Oct · home
Pick: Nojima Stella W 47% · hit
D
Cerezo Osaka W2–2Nojima Stella W18 Oct · away
Pick: Nojima Stella W 37% · missed

About this match

Parceiro Nagano W and Nojima Stella W meet in WE League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Nagano U Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Parceiro Nagano W win 18.3%, draw 19.7%, Nojima Stella W win 62.0%. The pick is Nojima Stella W win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.