Urawa Reds W vs Elfen Saitama W
Match result probability Model pick: Urawa Reds W win
Urawa Reds W winPick
72.2%
Draw
17.3%
Elfen Saitama W win
10.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes42.2%
No57.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
How much we know
Urawa Reds W history35 matches
Elfen Saitama W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Urawa Reds W
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 05:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 06:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.2%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why Urawa Reds W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Urawa Reds W are rated 143 Elo points higher
Elo 1,581 against 1,438. On rating alone Urawa Reds W would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Urawa Reds W score far more
1.80 goals a game over 35 matches for Urawa Reds W, against 1.06 over 34 for Elfen Saitama W.
-
Urawa Reds W concede fewer
Urawa Reds W concede 0.66 a game, Elfen Saitama W 1.50.
-
Elfen Saitama W games more often go over 2.5 goals
46% of Urawa Reds W matches, against 56% for Elfen Saitama W. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elfen Saitama W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1581.2
ELO
1438.5
35
ELO · Matches
34
1581.2
Current Team ELO
1438.5
1438.5
Current Opponent ELO
1581.2
142.7
Current ELO Difference
-142.7
0.69
Expected score
0.31
35
History Matches
34
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.09
57.08
Overperformance
44.37
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals 90
35
Matches
34
2.00
PPG
1.03
60.0%
Win rate
29.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
55.9%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
1.18
58.8%
Win rate
35.3%
23.5%
Draw rate
11.8%
17.6%
Loss rate
52.9%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
52.9%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.06
80.0%
Scoring rate
52.9%
31.4%
BTTS rate
32.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.82
76.5%
Scoring rate
47.1%
35.3%
BTTS rate
23.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
35
History Matches
34
1.80
Goals Mean
1.06
1.49
Goals Std
1.30
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.66
Goals against per game
1.50
42.9%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.59
Goals against per game
1.29
47.1%
Conceding rate
64.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
34
0.66
Conceded Mean
1.50
0.86
Conceded Std
1.38
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.5%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
35
History Matches
34
0.86
Result entropy
0.88
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.09
13.50
Stability score
11.98
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
35
Eligible Matches
34
19
Lead Matches
8
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.92
4
Trailing Matches
10
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.81
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.00
Portability PPG Range
0.73
100.0
Portability Score
57.89
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
35
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO142.7
PPG0.97
GF0.74
GA-0.84
PPG3.00
PPG0.82
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate27.1%
Scored 2+ rate22.1%
Scored 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.84
Conceded Std-0.52
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score1.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate7.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score42.11
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO142.7
Current Opponent ELO-142.7
Current ELO Difference285.4
Expected score0.39
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance12.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Urawa Reds W
L
Vegalta Sendai W1–0Urawa Reds W7 Nov · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 38% · missed W
Albirex Niigata W0–2Urawa Reds W1 Nov · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 39% · hit W
Urawa Reds W2–0Sanfrecce Hiroshima W28 Oct · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 57% · hit W
Urawa Reds W2–0INAC Kobe Leonessa W24 Oct · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 37% · hit L
JEF United W2–1Urawa Reds W18 Oct · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 56% · missed Elfen Saitama W
L
Cerezo Osaka W4–0Elfen Saitama W1 Nov · away
Pick: Cerezo Osaka W 50% · hit L
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W4–1Elfen Saitama W24 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 74% · hit L
Elfen Saitama W1–2Vegalta Sendai W21 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai W 42% · hit W
Omiya Ardija Ventus W0–2Elfen Saitama W18 Oct · away
Pick: Omiya Ardija Ventus W 46% · missed W
Elfen Saitama W2–1INAC Kobe Leonessa W30 Aug · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 58% · missed About this match
Urawa Reds W and Elfen Saitama W meet in WE League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Urawa Komaba Stadium, Saitama. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Urawa Reds W win 72.2%, draw 17.3%, Elfen Saitama W win 10.5%. The pick is Urawa Reds W win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.2%. Both teams to score: 42.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.