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WE League Japan Round 9 2026

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W vs Albirex Niigata W

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W Home · Elo 1,592
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Albirex Niigata W Away · Elo 1,518
Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W winPick
63.3%
Draw
22.0%
Albirex Niigata W win
14.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W history40 matches
Albirex Niigata W history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.3%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,592 against 1,518. On rating alone Tokyo Verdy Beleza W would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W score far more

    2.03 goals a game over 40 matches for Tokyo Verdy Beleza W, against 1.29 over 34 for Albirex Niigata W.

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W concede fewer

    Tokyo Verdy Beleza W concede 0.85 a game, Albirex Niigata W 1.15.

  • Tokyo Verdy Beleza W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Tokyo Verdy Beleza W matches, against 44% for Albirex Niigata W. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W
Albirex Niigata W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1591.9
ELO
1517.6
40
ELO · Matches
34
1591.9
Current Team ELO
1517.6
1517.6
Current Opponent ELO
1591.9
74.29
Current ELO Difference
-74.29
0.61
Expected score
0.39
40
History Matches
34
0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
57.74
Overperformance
51.54
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
34
2.08
PPG
1.62
65.0%
Win rate
47.1%
12.5%
Draw rate
20.6%
22.5%
Loss rate
32.4%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
61.8%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
17
2.10
PPG
2.06
66.7%
Win rate
64.7%
9.5%
Draw rate
11.8%
23.8%
Loss rate
23.5%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
21
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.03
Goals for per game
1.29
77.5%
Scoring rate
70.6%
42.5%
BTTS rate
41.2%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.65
76.2%
Scoring rate
88.2%
38.1%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
34
2.03
Goals Mean
1.29
1.72
Goals Std
1.32
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
30.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.15
62.5%
Conceding rate
64.7%
0.76
Goals against per game
0.88
61.9%
Conceding rate
52.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
34
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.76
Conceded Std
1.22
22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
34
0.80
Result entropy
0.95
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.83
20.30
Stability score
4.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
34
19
Lead Matches
7
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.81
7
Trailing Matches
10
14.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.88
Rest days
82.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
15
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.68
70.86
Portability Score
59.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO74.29
PPG0.46
GF0.73
GA-0.30
PPG2.00
PPG0.04
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.73
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate27.6%
Scored 3+ rate15.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score15.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.83
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate18.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score11.40
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.62
Current Team ELO74.29
Current Opponent ELO-74.29
Current ELO Difference148.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W

L
Nojima Stella W1–0Tokyo Verdy Beleza W7 Nov · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 40% · missed
W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W2–1Omiya Ardija Ventus W31 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 66% · hit
L
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W1–2Cerezo Osaka W28 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 65% · missed
W
Tokyo Verdy Beleza W4–1Elfen Saitama W24 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 74% · hit
W
Sanfrecce Hiroshima W2–3Tokyo Verdy Beleza W18 Oct · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W 44% · hit

Albirex Niigata W

L
Albirex Niigata W0–2Urawa Reds W1 Nov · home
Pick: Urawa Reds W 39% · hit
L
Albirex Niigata W0–1JEF United W24 Oct · home
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 55% · missed
L
Nojima Stella W1–0Albirex Niigata W21 Oct · away
Pick: Nojima Stella W 47% · hit
D
Albirex Niigata W0–0Parceiro Nagano W17 Oct · home
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 67% · missed
W
Albirex Niigata W3–2Vegalta Sendai W30 Aug · home
Pick: Albirex Niigata W 43% · hit

About this match

Tokyo Verdy Beleza W and Albirex Niigata W meet in WE League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win 63.3%, draw 22.0%, Albirex Niigata W win 14.8%. The pick is Tokyo Verdy Beleza W win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.