ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 1 Romania Group 1 - 12 2026

Paşcani vs FC Bacău II

Paşcani Home · Elo 1,515
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Bacău II Away · Elo 1,427
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paşcani win
Paşcani winPick
43.6%
Draw
20.1%
FC Bacău II win
36.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.5%
Under 2.526.5%

How much we know

Paşcani history2 matches
FC Bacău II history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Paşcani are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paşcani are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,427. On rating alone Paşcani would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Paşcani score far more

    4.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Paşcani, against 1.28 over 18 for FC Bacău II.

  • Paşcani concede fewer

    Paşcani concede 1.50 a game, FC Bacău II 2.22.

  • Paşcani games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Paşcani matches, against 78% for FC Bacău II. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paşcani
FC Bacău II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.5
ELO
1427.4
2
ELO · Matches
18
1515.5
Current Team ELO
1427.4
1427.4
Current Opponent ELO
1515.5
88.09
Current ELO Difference
-88.09
0.62
Expected score
0.38
2
History Matches
18
0.48
Residual Mean
-0.20
54.34
Overperformance
40.56
0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.20
4.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
0.80
4.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
4.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
18
3.00
PPG
0.67
100.0%
Win rate
16.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
9
3.00
PPG
0.22
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
0.0%
Loss rate
77.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
2
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
4.50
Goals for per game
1.28
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
61.1%
4.50
Goals for per game
1.22
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
77.8%
2
History Matches
18
4.50
Goals Mean
1.28
0.50
Goals Std
1.24
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
100.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
4.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
2.22
100.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
18
1.50
Conceded Mean
2.22
0.50
Conceded Std
1.18
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
77.8%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.9%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
18
0.00
Result entropy
0.79
0.00
Goal Difference Std
1.72
100.0
Stability score
21.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
7
2
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
3
—
Non-loss rate
33.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
2.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.43
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
456.9
Rest days
173.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
13
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO88.09
PPG2.33
GF3.22
GA-0.72
PPG2.78
PPG1.80
PPG2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-16
Goals Mean3.22
Goals Std-0.74
Scored 1+ rate33.3%
Scored 2+ rate66.7%
Scored 3+ rate77.8%
Venue Goals Mean3.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean3.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.86
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std-0.68
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.39
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.79
Goal Difference Std-1.72
Stability score78.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.73
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-3
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean2.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days283.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match2.00
Long Rest History Matches-13
Current Team ELO88.09
Current Opponent ELO-88.09
Current ELO Difference176.2
Expected score0.25
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.68
Overperformance13.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.63

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paşcani

D
Paşcani1–1USV Iaşi30 Oct · home
Pick: USV Iaşi 54% · missed
D
Viitorul Onesti2–2Paşcani24 Oct · away
Pick: Viitorul Onesti 61% · missed
L
Paşcani1–2Târgu Secuiesc16 Oct · home
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Bacău II

D
Aerostar Bacau0–0FC Bacău II30 Oct · away
Pick: Aerostar Bacau 57% · missed
W
FC Bacău II2–1Odorheiu Secuiesc23 Oct · home
Pick: Odorheiu Secuiesc 50% · missed
L
Bradul Putna3–1FC Bacău II17 Oct · away
Pick: Bradul Putna 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paşcani and FC Bacău II meet in Liga III - Serie 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Paşcani win 43.6%, draw 20.1%, FC Bacău II win 36.3%. The pick is Paşcani win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.5%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.