ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Pelikan Łowicz vs Weszlo

Pelikan Łowicz Home · Elo 1,458
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Weszlo Away · Elo 1,545
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Weszlo win
Pelikan Łowicz win
15.9%
Draw
19.2%
Weszlo winPick
64.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Pelikan Łowicz history25 matches
Weszlo history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Weszlo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Weszlo are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,458. On rating alone Weszlo would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Weszlo score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 25 matches for Pelikan Łowicz, against 2.67 over 6 for Weszlo.

  • Weszlo concede fewer

    Pelikan Łowicz concede 1.80 a game, Weszlo 0.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Pelikan Łowicz matches, against 67% for Weszlo. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pelikan Łowicz
Weszlo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.9
ELO
1545.1
25
ELO · Matches
6
1457.9
Current Team ELO
1545.1
1545.1
Current Opponent ELO
1457.9
-87.23
Current ELO Difference
87.23
0.38
Expected score
0.62
25
History Matches
6
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.41
45.99
Overperformance
59.43
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.41
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
6
1.30
PPG
2.67
1.30
Goals for per game
2.67
1.90
Goals against per game
0.67
40.0%
Win rate
83.3%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.67
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.67
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.41
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
6
1.04
PPG
2.67
28.0%
Win rate
83.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
52.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
2
1.29
PPG
3.00
35.7%
Win rate
100.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
0.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
14
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
2.67
76.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
64.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.50
85.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
25
History Matches
6
1.08
Goals Mean
2.67
0.84
Goals Std
1.37
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
24.0%
Scored 2+ rate
83.3%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
0.67
84.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.43
Goals against per game
0.00
78.6%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
25
History Matches
6
1.80
Conceded Mean
0.67
1.39
Conceded Std
0.75
52.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
6
0.93
Result entropy
0.41
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.53
7.30
Stability score
58.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
6
6
Lead Matches
5
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
0
12.5%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
10
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.40
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.57
Portability PPG Std
—
1.25
Portability PPG Range
—
46.92
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-87.23
PPG-1.63
GF-1.59
GA1.13
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.71
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.37
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate24.0%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.79
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches19
Goals Mean-1.59
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.59
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches19
Conceded Mean1.13
Conceded Std0.64
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Conceded 2+ rate35.3%
Conceded 3+ rate28.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.23
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches19
Result entropy0.52
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-51.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.39
Trailing Matches8
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.99
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.84
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.40
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.85
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-87.23
Current Opponent ELO87.23
Current ELO Difference-174.5
Expected score-0.25
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.48
Overperformance-13.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pelikan Łowicz

L
Pelikan Łowicz1–2Wisła Płock II31 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Płock II 40% · hit
D
Warta Sieradz2–2Pelikan Łowicz24 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Sieradz 62% · missed
L
Pelikan Łowicz1–4Wigry Suwałki17 Oct · home
Pick: Wigry Suwałki 45% · hit
L
Ząbkovia Ząbki2–1Pelikan Łowicz29 Aug · away
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Weszlo

L
Weszlo0–1Warta Sieradz31 Oct · home
Pick: Weszlo 42% · missed
L
Wigry Suwałki4–1Weszlo24 Oct · away
Pick: Weszlo 38% · missed
W
Weszlo3–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki18 Oct · home
Pick: Weszlo 66% · hit
D
Troszyn3–3Weszlo29 Aug · away
Pick: Weszlo 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pelikan Łowicz and Weszlo meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Pelikan Łowicz win 15.9%, draw 19.2%, Weszlo win 64.9%. The pick is Weszlo win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.