ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Olimpia Elbląg vs Ząbkovia Ząbki

Olimpia Elbląg Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ząbkovia Ząbki Away · Elo 1,456
Stadion Miejski, Elblag Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olimpia Elbląg win
Olimpia Elbląg winPick
54.1%
Draw
21.2%
Ząbkovia Ząbki win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.1%
No38.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

How much we know

Olimpia Elbląg history66 matches
Ząbkovia Ząbki history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Olimpia Elbląg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,453 against 1,456. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ząbkovia Ząbki score more

    1.36 goals a game over 66 matches for Olimpia Elbląg, against 1.93 over 41 for Ząbkovia Ząbki.

  • Defences are close

    Olimpia Elbląg concede 1.73 a game, Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.90.

  • Ząbkovia Ząbki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Olimpia Elbląg matches, against 78% for Ząbkovia Ząbki. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olimpia Elbląg
Ząbkovia Ząbki
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.9
ELO
1456.4
66
ELO · Matches
41
1452.9
Current Team ELO
1456.4
1456.4
Current Opponent ELO
1452.9
-3.45
Current ELO Difference
3.45
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
41
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.83
Overperformance
46.05
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
41
1.12
PPG
1.24
28.8%
Win rate
36.6%
25.8%
Draw rate
14.6%
45.5%
Loss rate
48.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.0%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.8%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
22
1.31
PPG
0.95
37.1%
Win rate
27.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
13.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
59.1%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
90.9%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
35
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.93
77.3%
Scoring rate
78.0%
60.6%
BTTS rate
68.3%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.91
77.1%
Scoring rate
81.8%
57.1%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
66
History Matches
41
1.36
Goals Mean
1.93
1.25
Goals Std
1.80
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.90
80.3%
Conceding rate
87.8%
1.57
Goals against per game
2.27
77.1%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
66
History Matches
41
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.32
Conceded Std
1.28
51.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.1%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.7%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
2.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
41
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.41
2.95
Stability score
9.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
41
18
Lead Matches
12
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.78
25
Trailing Matches
13
36.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.27
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
27
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.93
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
6
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.71
Portability PPG Range
0.40
43.52
Portability Score
75.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-3.45
PPG-0.12
GF-0.56
GA-0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches25
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches25
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.63
Stability score-6.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate20.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range1.31
Portability Score-31.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-3.45
Current Opponent ELO3.45
Current ELO Difference-6.90
Expected score-0.01
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olimpia Elbląg

L
Troszyn2–0Olimpia Elbląg31 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 45% · missed
D
Olimpia Elbląg0–0Jagiellonia II24 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 46% · missed
D
ŁKS Łódź II1–1Olimpia Elbląg17 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 49% · missed
L
Olimpia Elbląg1–3Wigry Suwałki29 Aug · home
Pick: Wigry Suwałki 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ząbkovia Ząbki

W
Ząbkovia Ząbki2–0Swit31 Oct · home
Pick: Swit 46% · missed
D
Wisła Płock II2–2Ząbkovia Ząbki24 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Płock II 55% · missed
D
Troszyn1–1Ząbkovia Ząbki18 Oct · away
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 45% · missed
W
ŁKS Łódź II0–3Ząbkovia Ząbki14 Oct · away
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 43% · hit
W
Ząbkovia Ząbki2–1Pelikan Łowicz29 Aug · home
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 47% · hit

About this match

Olimpia Elbląg and Ząbkovia Ząbki meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski, Elblag. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Olimpia Elbląg win 54.1%, draw 21.2%, Ząbkovia Ząbki win 24.7%. The pick is Olimpia Elbląg win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.