ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Wigry Suwałki vs Łomża

Wigry Suwałki Home · Elo 1,581
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Łomża Away · Elo 1,554
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wigry Suwałki win
Wigry Suwałki winPick
55.5%
Draw
20.6%
Łomża win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Wigry Suwałki history60 matches
Łomża history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Wigry Suwałki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wigry Suwałki are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,554. On rating alone Wigry Suwałki would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Łomża score more

    1.58 goals a game over 60 matches for Wigry Suwałki, against 2.02 over 58 for Łomża.

  • Łomża concede fewer

    Wigry Suwałki concede 1.23 a game, Łomża 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Wigry Suwałki matches, against 59% for Łomża. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wigry Suwałki
Łomża
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.9
ELO
1553.8
60
ELO · Matches
58
1580.9
Current Team ELO
1553.8
1553.8
Current Opponent ELO
1580.9
27.10
Current ELO Difference
-27.10
0.54
Expected score
0.46
60
History Matches
58
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.60
Overperformance
53.23
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
58
1.62
PPG
1.79
48.3%
Win rate
53.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
19.0%
35.0%
Loss rate
27.6%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
2.04
PPG
1.76
64.3%
Win rate
55.2%
10.7%
Draw rate
10.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
34.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
2.02
80.0%
Scoring rate
82.8%
56.7%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.93
85.7%
Scoring rate
79.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
60
History Matches
58
1.58
Goals Mean
2.02
1.28
Goals Std
1.47
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
63.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.0%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.09
71.7%
Conceding rate
60.3%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.17
57.1%
Conceding rate
65.5%
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
60
History Matches
58
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.02
Conceded Std
1.18
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.3%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
58
0.93
Result entropy
0.92
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.86
7.39
Stability score
8.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
57
26
Lead Matches
21
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.89
8
Trailing Matches
14
12.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.26
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
34
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.40
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.78
1.58
Portability PPG Range
1.69
46.79
Portability Score
39.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO27.10
PPG-0.18
GF-0.43
GA0.15
PPG1.40
PPG0.28
PPG1.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-1.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.89
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.29
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score7.60
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO27.10
Current Opponent ELO-27.10
Current ELO Difference54.20
Expected score0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wigry Suwałki

L
Lechia T. Mazowiecki2–0Wigry Suwałki31 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 38% · hit
W
Wigry Suwałki4–1Weszlo24 Oct · home
Pick: Weszlo 38% · missed
W
Pelikan Łowicz1–4Wigry Suwałki17 Oct · away
Pick: Wigry Suwałki 45% · hit
L
Wigry Suwałki1–5Nieciecza1 Sep · home
Pick: Nieciecza 37% · hit
W
Olimpia Elbląg1–3Wigry Suwałki29 Aug · away
Pick: Wigry Suwałki 38% · hit

Łomża

D
Widzew II2–2Łomża25 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
L
Łomża0–2Olimpia Zambrów17 Oct · home
Pick: Łomża 56% · missed
L
ŁKS Łódź II4–3Łomża30 Aug · away
Pick: Łomża 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wigry Suwałki and Łomża meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wigry Suwałki win 55.5%, draw 20.6%, Łomża win 23.9%. The pick is Wigry Suwałki win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.