ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Mławianka Mława

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mławianka Mława Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki winPick
50.5%
Draw
22.3%
Mławianka Mława win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.2%
No33.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%

How much we know

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki history6 matches
Mławianka Mława history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score more

    2.33 goals a game over 6 matches for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, against 1.76 over 54 for Mławianka Mława.

  • Defences are close

    Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki concede 1.83 a game, Mławianka Mława 1.72.

  • Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki matches, against 72% for Mławianka Mława. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Mławianka Mława
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.3
ELO
1490.4
6
ELO · Matches
54
1510.3
Current Team ELO
1490.4
1490.4
Current Opponent ELO
1510.3
19.91
Current ELO Difference
-19.91
0.53
Expected score
0.47
6
History Matches
54
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.97
Overperformance
49.41
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
6
Matches
10
1.67
PPG
1.60
2.33
Goals for per game
2.10
1.83
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
54
1.67
PPG
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
37.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
18.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
27
1.33
PPG
1.26
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
3
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.33
Goals for per game
1.76
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.30
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
6
History Matches
54
2.33
Goals Mean
1.76
0.94
Goals Std
1.36
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
83.3%
Scored 2+ rate
53.7%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.83
Goals against per game
1.72
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.5%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.78
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
6
History Matches
54
1.83
Conceded Mean
1.72
0.69
Conceded Std
1.39
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.9%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
2.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
54
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
1.38
Goal Difference Std
2.05
7.94
Stability score
5.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
53
3
Lead Matches
12
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.83
2
Trailing Matches
17
50.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
2
Normal Rest History Matches
28
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
2
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.84
—
Portability PPG Range
2.20
—
Portability Score
37.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO19.91
PPG0.37
GF0.57
GA0.11
PPG1.20
PPG0.07
PPG1.20
PPG0.07
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-48
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-48
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate18.5%
Scored 2+ rate29.6%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches-48
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std-0.71
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches-48
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.67
Stability score2.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-47
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate32.4%
Trailing Win Rate44.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-47
First Half Goals For Mean0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.54
Long Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO19.91
Current Opponent ELO-19.91
Current ELO Difference39.82
Expected score0.06
History Matches-48
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance2.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

W
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki3–1Lechia T. Mazowiecki24 Oct · home
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 42% · hit
L
Weszlo3–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki18 Oct · away
Pick: Weszlo 66% · hit
D
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.2–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki29 Aug · away
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mławianka Mława

L
Mławianka Mława1–4Widzew II31 Oct · home
Pick: Widzew II 45% · hit
D
Olimpia Zambrów1–1Mławianka Mława24 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 46% · missed
W
Mławianka Mława3–2Polonia Lidzbark Warm.17 Oct · home
Pick: Mławianka Mława 66% · hit
L
Wisła Płock II5–3Mławianka Mława29 Aug · away
Pick: Wisła Płock II 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki and Mławianka Mława meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win 50.5%, draw 22.3%, Mławianka Mława win 27.2%. The pick is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.8%. Both teams to score: 66.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.