ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Wisła Płock II vs Swit

Wisła Płock II Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Swit Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Swit win
Wisła Płock II win
34.0%
Draw
24.5%
Swit winPick
41.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Wisła Płock II history46 matches
Swit history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Swit are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wisła Płock II are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,468. On rating alone Wisła Płock II would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 46 matches for Wisła Płock II, against 1.43 over 58 for Swit.

  • Wisła Płock II concede fewer

    Wisła Płock II concede 1.46 a game, Swit 1.71.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Wisła Płock II matches, against 62% for Swit. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wisła Płock II
Swit
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.0
ELO
1468.2
46
ELO · Matches
58
1532.0
Current Team ELO
1468.2
1468.2
Current Opponent ELO
1532.0
63.80
Current ELO Difference
-63.80
0.59
Expected score
0.41
46
History Matches
58
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.12
Overperformance
47.53
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
58
1.54
PPG
1.26
41.3%
Win rate
34.5%
30.4%
Draw rate
22.4%
28.3%
Loss rate
43.1%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
31
1.59
PPG
1.23
40.9%
Win rate
35.5%
36.4%
Draw rate
16.1%
22.7%
Loss rate
48.4%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
22
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.43
82.6%
Scoring rate
77.6%
76.1%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.06
72.7%
Scoring rate
67.7%
68.2%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
46
History Matches
58
1.57
Goals Mean
1.43
1.12
Goals Std
1.16
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.71
87.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.81
86.4%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
46
History Matches
58
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.04
Conceded Std
1.41
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.7%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.6%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.89
1.29
Stability score
3.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
57
14
Lead Matches
18
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.69
12
Trailing Matches
19
58.3%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
25
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.60
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.45
Portability PPG Range
0.39
71.37
Portability Score
77.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.80
PPG0.28
GF0.13
GA-0.25
PPG0.00
PPG0.37
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.54
Stability score-1.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate3.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate32.0%
Trailing Win Rate6.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-6.32
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO63.80
Current Opponent ELO-63.80
Current ELO Difference127.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wisła Płock II

W
Pelikan Łowicz1–2Wisła Płock II31 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Płock II 40% · hit
D
Wisła Płock II2–2Ząbkovia Ząbki24 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Płock II 55% · missed
L
Warta Sieradz2–1Wisła Płock II17 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Sieradz 48% · hit
L
Wisła Płock II0–2Puszcza Niepołomice1 Sep · home
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 49% · hit
W
Wisła Płock II5–3Mławianka Mława29 Aug · home
Pick: Wisła Płock II 56% · hit

Swit

L
Ząbkovia Ząbki2–0Swit31 Oct · away
Pick: Swit 46% · missed
W
Swit3–0Troszyn24 Oct · home
Pick: Swit 61% · hit
W
Jagiellonia II1–3Swit18 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 39% · missed
W
Swit2–1Warta Sieradz29 Aug · home
Pick: Swit 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wisła Płock II and Swit meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wisła Płock II win 34.0%, draw 24.5%, Swit win 41.5%. The pick is Swit win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.