ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Peña Sport vs Terrassa

Peña Sport Home · Elo 1,623
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Terrassa Away · Elo 1,519
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Peña Sport win
Peña Sport winPick
55.9%
Draw
25.0%
Terrassa win
19.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%

How much we know

Peña Sport history53 matches
Terrassa history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Peña Sport are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Peña Sport are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,519. On rating alone Peña Sport would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Peña Sport score far more

    1.75 goals a game over 53 matches for Peña Sport, against 1.10 over 51 for Terrassa.

  • Peña Sport concede fewer

    Peña Sport concede 1.06 a game, Terrassa 1.20.

  • Peña Sport games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Peña Sport matches, against 35% for Terrassa. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Peña Sport
Terrassa@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.4
ELO
1518.7
53
ELO · Matches
51
1623.4
Current Team ELO
1518.7
1518.7
Current Opponent ELO
1623.4
104.7
Current ELO Difference
-104.7
0.65
Expected score
0.35
53
History Matches
51
0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
58.43
Overperformance
51.76
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.72
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
51
1.98
PPG
1.35
56.6%
Win rate
35.3%
28.3%
Draw rate
29.4%
15.1%
Loss rate
35.3%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
2.56
PPG
1.08
77.8%
Win rate
25.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.75
Goals for per game
1.10
86.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
66.0%
BTTS rate
41.2%
2.30
Goals for per game
1.08
96.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
51
1.75
Goals Mean
1.10
1.24
Goals Std
0.98
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
58.5%
Scored 2+ rate
27.5%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.20
71.7%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.54
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.8%
53
History Matches
51
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Conceded Std
1.41
24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.5%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
51
0.88
Result entropy
1.00
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.66
12.18
Stability score
0.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
51
22
Lead Matches
16
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.73
3
Trailing Matches
9
100.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.92
Rest days
188.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
26
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.71
Portability PPG Range
0.02
62.76
Portability Score
98.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO104.7
PPG0.63
GF0.66
GA-0.14
PPG1.47
PPG1.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate16.2%
Scored 2+ rate31.0%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.18
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score11.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.66
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate14.8%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate77.8%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.69
Portability Score-35.32
Rest days-107.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO104.7
Current Opponent ELO-104.7
Current ELO Difference209.4
Expected score0.29
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Peña Sport

D
Peña Sport1–1Reddis24 Oct · home
Pick: Peña Sport 35% · missed
D
Calamocha1–1Peña Sport18 Oct · away
Pick: Peña Sport 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Terrassa

W
Terrassa2–1Reddis1 Nov · home
Pick: Reddis 40% · missed
D
SD Logroñés0–0Terrassa25 Oct · away
Pick: SD Logroñés 49% · missed
W
Terrassa1–0Girona II21 Oct · home
Pick: Girona II 38% · missed
W
Terrassa3–0UD Logroñés II18 Oct · home
Pick: Terrassa 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Peña Sport and Terrassa meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Peña Sport win 55.9%, draw 25.0%, Terrassa win 19.1%. The pick is Peña Sport win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.