Plymouth vs Alvechurch
Plymouth
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alvechurch
Match result probability Model pick: Plymouth win
Plymouth winPick
55.6%
Draw
21.7%
Alvechurch win
22.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%
How much we know
Plymouth history87 matches
Alvechurch history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Plymouth
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Plymouth are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Plymouth are rated 75 Elo points higher
Elo 1,598 against 1,523. On rating alone Plymouth would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Plymouth score more
1.69 goals a game over 87 matches for Plymouth, against 1.20 over 76 for Alvechurch.
-
Alvechurch concede fewer
Plymouth concede 1.37 a game, Alvechurch 1.17.
-
Plymouth games more often go over 2.5 goals
59% of Plymouth matches, against 41% for Alvechurch. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Plymouth
Alvechurch
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1597.9
ELO
1522.7
87
ELO · Matches
76
1597.9
Current Team ELO
1522.7
1522.7
Current Opponent ELO
1597.9
75.25
Current ELO Difference
-75.25
0.61
Expected score
0.39
87
History Matches
76
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
54.20
Overperformance
51.51
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
87
Matches
76
1.63
PPG
1.29
49.4%
Win rate
34.2%
14.9%
Draw rate
26.3%
35.6%
Loss rate
39.5%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.8%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
37
1.61
PPG
1.08
48.8%
Win rate
27.0%
14.6%
Draw rate
27.0%
36.6%
Loss rate
45.9%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.8%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
41
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.69
Goals for per game
1.20
79.3%
Scoring rate
65.8%
56.3%
BTTS rate
46.1%
1.66
Goals for per game
0.95
82.9%
Scoring rate
48.6%
63.4%
BTTS rate
35.1%
87
History Matches
76
1.69
Goals Mean
1.20
1.48
Goals Std
1.15
79.3%
Scored 1+ rate
65.8%
42.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
26.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.37
Goals against per game
1.17
74.7%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.14
78.0%
Conceding rate
67.6%
87
History Matches
76
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.12
Conceded Std
1.02
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.2%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.4%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.4%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
87
History Matches
76
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.45
8.97
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
86
Eligible Matches
76
27
Lead Matches
16
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.69
24
Trailing Matches
21
29.2%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.56
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
64
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.25
53.57
Portability Score
49.93
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
87
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO75.25
PPG0.34
GF0.49
GA0.20
PPG0.53
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate13.5%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.53
Stability score7.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate22.7%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate0.6%
Trailing Win Rate11.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score3.65
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.76
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO75.25
Current Opponent ELO-75.25
Current ELO Difference150.5
Expected score0.21
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Plymouth
D
Plymouth0–0Reading31 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed W
Cambridge United2–3Plymouth24 Oct · away
Pick: Cambridge United 53% · missed L
Stevenage3–0Plymouth20 Oct · away
Pick: Stevenage 45% · hit L
Plymouth0–2Huddersfield17 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed L
Leicester2–0Plymouth1 Sep · away
Pick: Leicester 48% · hit Alvechurch
W
Leiston1–3Alvechurch31 Oct · away
Pick: Alvechurch 39% · hit D
Alvechurch2–2Anstey Nomads27 Oct · home
Pick: Alvechurch 46% · missed D
Stratford Town4–4Alvechurch24 Oct · away
Pick: Alvechurch 41% · missed D
Spalding United2–2Alvechurch17 Oct · away
Pick: Spalding United 40% · missed D
Halesowen Town1–1Alvechurch13 Oct · away
Pick: Alvechurch 39% · missed About this match
Plymouth and Alvechurch meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Home Park, Plymouth. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Plymouth win 55.6%, draw 21.7%, Alvechurch win 22.7%. The pick is Plymouth win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.