ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone B Italy Group B - 11 2026

Pro Palazzolo vs Rovato Vertovese

Pro Palazzolo Home · Elo 1,562
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rovato Vertovese Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pro Palazzolo win
Pro Palazzolo winPick
54.8%
Draw
26.4%
Rovato Vertovese win
18.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.7%
No54.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%

How much we know

Pro Palazzolo history53 matches
Rovato Vertovese history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 5 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Pro Palazzolo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pro Palazzolo are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,526. On rating alone Pro Palazzolo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Pro Palazzolo score more

    1.60 goals a game over 53 matches for Pro Palazzolo, against 1.06 over 36 for Rovato Vertovese.

  • Defences are close

    Pro Palazzolo concede 0.96 a game, Rovato Vertovese 0.92.

  • Pro Palazzolo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Pro Palazzolo matches, against 33% for Rovato Vertovese. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pro Palazzolo
Rovato Vertovese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1562.4
ELO
1525.9
53
ELO · Matches
36
1562.4
Current Team ELO
1525.9
1525.9
Current Opponent ELO
1562.4
36.44
Current ELO Difference
-36.44
0.55
Expected score
0.45
53
History Matches
36
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.97
Overperformance
52.32
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
36
1.77
PPG
1.53
50.9%
Win rate
41.7%
24.5%
Draw rate
27.8%
24.5%
Loss rate
30.6%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
18
1.88
PPG
1.11
53.8%
Win rate
27.8%
26.9%
Draw rate
27.8%
19.2%
Loss rate
44.4%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
5.6%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
26
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.60
Goals for per game
1.06
77.4%
Scoring rate
63.9%
49.1%
BTTS rate
36.1%
1.62
Goals for per game
0.61
80.8%
Scoring rate
44.4%
46.2%
BTTS rate
22.2%
53
History Matches
36
1.60
Goals Mean
1.06
1.34
Goals Std
0.91
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.9%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
2.8%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
0.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
0.92
60.4%
Conceding rate
58.3%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.00
53.8%
Conceding rate
61.1%
53
History Matches
36
0.96
Conceded Mean
0.92
0.99
Conceded Std
1.01
26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
55.6%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
36
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.47
5.97
Stability score
1.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
35
23
Lead Matches
10
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.93
10
Trailing Matches
10
30.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.94
Rest days
91.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
12
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.26
Portability PPG Std
—
0.51
Portability PPG Range
—
66.04
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO36.44
PPG0.25
GF0.55
GA0.05
PPG0.77
PPG-0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate13.5%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score4.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-11.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.42
Current Team ELO36.44
Current Opponent ELO-36.44
Current ELO Difference72.89
Expected score0.10
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pro Palazzolo

L
Pavonese2–0Pro Palazzolo1 Nov · away
Pick: Pro Palazzolo 39% · missed
D
Pro Palazzolo1–1Piacenza25 Oct · home
Pick: Pro Palazzolo 42% · missed
L
Villa Valle1–0Pro Palazzolo18 Oct · away
Pick: Pro Palazzolo 45% · missed
W
Brusaporto0–1Pro Palazzolo4 Oct · away
Pick: Pro Palazzolo 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rovato Vertovese

W
Rovato Vertovese3–1Caldiero Terme1 Nov · home
Pick: Caldiero Terme 38% · missed
L
Fiorenzuola2–1Rovato Vertovese25 Oct · away
Pick: Rovato Vertovese 40% · missed
D
Rovato Vertovese1–1Scanzorosciate18 Oct · home
Pick: Rovato Vertovese 43% · missed
L
Rovato Vertovese0–1Real Calepina4 Oct · home
Pick: Rovato Vertovese 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pro Palazzolo and Rovato Vertovese meet in Serie D - Girone B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Pro Palazzolo win 54.8%, draw 26.4%, Rovato Vertovese win 18.8%. The pick is Pro Palazzolo win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.1%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.