ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Recreativo Huelva vs Mijas Las Lagunas

Recreativo Huelva Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mijas Las Lagunas Away · Elo 1,614
Nuevo Colombino, Huelva Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Recreativo Huelva win
Recreativo Huelva winPick
47.3%
Draw
25.2%
Mijas Las Lagunas win
27.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.8%
Under 2.556.2%

How much we know

Recreativo Huelva history84 matches
Mijas Las Lagunas history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 9 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Recreativo Huelva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mijas Las Lagunas are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,515. On rating alone Mijas Las Lagunas would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Mijas Las Lagunas score far more

    1.02 goals a game over 84 matches for Recreativo Huelva, against 1.60 over 50 for Mijas Las Lagunas.

  • Mijas Las Lagunas concede fewer

    Recreativo Huelva concede 1.12 a game, Mijas Las Lagunas 0.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Recreativo Huelva matches, against 44% for Mijas Las Lagunas. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Recreativo Huelva
Mijas Las Lagunas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.3
ELO
1613.8
84
ELO · Matches
50
1515.3
Current Team ELO
1613.8
1613.8
Current Opponent ELO
1515.3
-98.45
Current ELO Difference
98.45
0.36
Expected score
0.64
84
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
50.81
Overperformance
57.90
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
50
1.27
PPG
2.02
33.3%
Win rate
58.0%
27.4%
Draw rate
28.0%
39.3%
Loss rate
14.0%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.0%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
25
1.62
PPG
1.88
45.2%
Win rate
52.0%
26.2%
Draw rate
32.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
16.0%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
42
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.60
61.9%
Scoring rate
76.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.40
71.4%
Scoring rate
76.0%
45.2%
BTTS rate
48.0%
84
History Matches
50
1.02
Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Goals Std
1.33
61.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.0%
26.2%
Scored 2+ rate
46.0%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.12
Goals against per game
0.78
63.1%
Conceding rate
54.0%
0.98
Goals against per game
0.92
57.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
84
History Matches
50
1.12
Conceded Mean
0.78
1.11
Conceded Std
0.92
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.0%
11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.0%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.0%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.0%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
36.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
50
0.99
Result entropy
0.86
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.26
0.97
Stability score
13.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
50
15
Lead Matches
18
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.93
20
Trailing Matches
10
15.0%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
102.0
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
24
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.91
Portability PPG Range
0.00
56.88
Portability Score
100.0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-98.45
PPG-0.75
GF-0.58
GA0.34
PPG-0.26
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches34
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches34
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches34
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score-12.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.45
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-43.12
Rest days18.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches23
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.83
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-98.45
Current Opponent ELO98.45
Current ELO Difference-196.9
Expected score-0.28
History Matches34
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Recreativo Huelva

L
Recreativo Huelva1–2Egabrense1 Nov · home
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 63% · missed
W
Real Betis II0–2Recreativo Huelva1 Nov · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 43% · hit
D
Linense1–1Recreativo Huelva25 Oct · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 43% · missed
W
Recreativo Huelva5–0Antoniano24 Oct · home
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 53% · hit
L
Recreativo Huelva0–3San Roque Lepe18 Oct · home
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 52% · missed

Mijas Las Lagunas

D
Marbella0–0Mijas Las Lagunas1 Nov · away
Pick: Mijas Las Lagunas 41% · missed
D
Mijas Las Lagunas1–1Real Betis II24 Oct · home
Pick: Mijas Las Lagunas 47% · missed
W
Tenerife II1–3Mijas Las Lagunas18 Oct · away
Pick: Mijas Las Lagunas 47% · hit
D
Sanluqueño2–2Mijas Las Lagunas4 Oct · away
Pick: Sanluqueño 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Recreativo Huelva and Mijas Las Lagunas meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Nuevo Colombino, Huelva. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Recreativo Huelva win 47.3%, draw 25.2%, Mijas Las Lagunas win 27.5%. The pick is Recreativo Huelva win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.8%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.