ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Rennes Home · Elo 1,546
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olympiakos Piraeus Away · Elo 1,637
Roazhon Park, Rennes Referee: Igor Pajac Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olympiakos Piraeus win
Rennes win
26.4%
Draw
20.3%
Olympiakos Piraeus winPick
53.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

Rennes history64 matches
Olympiakos Piraeus history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Olympiakos Piraeus are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,546. On rating alone Olympiakos Piraeus would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.70 goals a game over 64 matches for Rennes, against 1.66 over 86 for Olympiakos Piraeus.

  • Olympiakos Piraeus concede fewer

    Rennes concede 1.64 a game, Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86.

  • Rennes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Rennes matches, against 42% for Olympiakos Piraeus. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rennes
Olympiakos Piraeus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.0
ELO
1637.1
64
ELO · Matches
86
1546.0
Current Team ELO
1637.1
1637.1
Current Opponent ELO
1546.0
-91.04
Current ELO Difference
91.04
0.37
Expected score
0.63
64
History Matches
86
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
53.08
Overperformance
56.03
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
2.90
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.21
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
86
1.55
PPG
1.97
45.3%
Win rate
58.1%
18.8%
Draw rate
22.1%
35.9%
Loss rate
19.8%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.8%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
44
1.68
PPG
1.82
50.0%
Win rate
54.5%
17.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
32.4%
Loss rate
27.3%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
34
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.70
Goals for per game
1.66
81.3%
Scoring rate
79.1%
57.8%
BTTS rate
39.5%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.48
82.4%
Scoring rate
79.5%
64.7%
BTTS rate
40.9%
64
History Matches
86
1.70
Goals Mean
1.66
1.25
Goals Std
1.42
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.1%
53.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.5%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.64
Goals against per game
0.86
71.9%
Conceding rate
51.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.05
76.5%
Conceding rate
54.5%
64
History Matches
86
1.64
Conceded Mean
0.86
1.64
Conceded Std
1.10
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
48.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
48.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
48.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
86
0.95
Result entropy
0.88
2.33
Goal Difference Std
1.88
5.30
Stability score
11.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
86
27
Lead Matches
36
74.1%
Lead Win Rate
86.1%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.89
18
Trailing Matches
13
11.1%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.86
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
18
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.22
28
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
34
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
11
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.29
49.29
Portability Score
51.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-91.04
PPG-0.42
GF0.04
GA0.78
PPG-0.14
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-22
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate6.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-22
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate22.1%
Conceded 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.23
History Matches-22
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score-6.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.53
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate3.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-2.23
Rest days-1.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-17
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.22
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-91.04
Current Opponent ELO91.04
Current ELO Difference-182.1
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-22
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rennes

W
Rennes3–0Strasbourg25 Oct · home
Pick: Rennes 51% · hit
D
Juventus2–2Rennes22 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus 60% · missed
L
Paris FC4–3Rennes18 Oct · away
Pick: Paris FC 45% · hit
W
Rennes2–1OFI15 Oct · home
Pick: OFI 42% · missed
W
Rennes3–2Le Mans30 Aug · home
Pick: Rennes 39% · hit

Olympiakos Piraeus

W
Kifisia2–3Olympiakos Piraeus31 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% · hit
W
Marko0–2Olympiakos Piraeus28 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% · hit
W
Olympiakos Piraeus5–0Kalamata25 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 68% · hit
W
Olympiakos Piraeus1–0Sparta Praha22 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% · hit
W
Panetolikos0–2Olympiakos Piraeus18 Oct · away
Pick: Panetolikos 36% · missed

About this match

Rennes and Olympiakos Piraeus meet in UEFA Europa League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Roazhon Park, Rennes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC: Rennes win 26.4%, draw 20.3%, Olympiakos Piraeus win 53.4%. The pick is Olympiakos Piraeus win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.