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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 11 2026

Revilla vs Cayón

Revilla Home · Elo 1,397
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cayón Away · Elo 1,549
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cayón win
Revilla win
28.7%
Draw
24.2%
Cayón winPick
47.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Revilla history47 matches
Cayón history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Cayón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cayón are rated 152 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,397. On rating alone Cayón would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Cayón score more

    1.11 goals a game over 47 matches for Revilla, against 1.56 over 55 for Cayón.

  • Cayón concede fewer

    Revilla concede 1.89 a game, Cayón 1.15.

  • Revilla games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Revilla matches, against 51% for Cayón. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Revilla
Cayón@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1397.3
ELO
1549.4
47
ELO · Matches
55
1397.3
Current Team ELO
1549.4
1549.4
Current Opponent ELO
1397.3
-152.1
Current ELO Difference
152.1
0.29
Expected score
0.71
47
History Matches
55
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.04
42.91
Overperformance
53.26
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.60
Goals for per game
1.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
55
0.87
PPG
1.76
21.3%
Win rate
52.7%
23.4%
Draw rate
18.2%
55.3%
Loss rate
29.1%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
38.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.16
PPG
1.48
28.0%
Win rate
40.7%
32.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
40.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.11
Goals for per game
1.56
61.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
53.2%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.11
76.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
68.0%
BTTS rate
40.7%
47
History Matches
55
1.11
Goals Mean
1.56
1.17
Goals Std
1.29
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.89
Goals against per game
1.15
83.0%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.72
Goals against per game
1.19
84.0%
Conceding rate
63.0%
47
History Matches
55
1.89
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.32
Conceded Std
1.00
57.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.5%
34.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
17.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
55
0.91
Result entropy
0.92
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.84
9.28
Stability score
8.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
55
8
Lead Matches
12
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
16
30.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
31.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
1.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
22
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.01
Portability PPG Range
1.19
99.17
Portability Score
50.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-152.1
PPG-0.89
GF-0.46
GA0.75
PPG-0.32
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate18.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.75
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.42
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.18
Portability Score48.53
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Current Team ELO-152.1
Current Opponent ELO152.1
Current ELO Difference-304.2
Expected score-0.41
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Revilla

W
Guarnizo0–3Revilla7 Nov · away
Pick: Guarnizo 57% · missed
D
Revilla1–1Vimenor30 Oct · home
Pick: Vimenor 45% · missed
W
Barquereño1–3Revilla25 Oct · away
Pick: Barquereño 46% · missed
W
Revilla3–2Naval Reinosa18 Oct · home
Pick: Revilla 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cayón

W
Selaya0–3Cayón30 Oct · away
Pick: Cayón 38% · hit
W
Cayón1–0Laredo25 Oct · home
Pick: Laredo 39% · missed
W
Bezana0–2Cayón17 Oct · away
Pick: Bezana 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Revilla and Cayón meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Revilla win 28.7%, draw 24.2%, Cayón win 47.1%. The pick is Cayón win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.