Solares vs Sámano
Match result probability Model pick: Solares win
Solares winPick
40.0%
Draw
32.4%
Sámano win
27.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.2%
No47.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%
How much we know
Solares history0 matches
Sámano history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Solares
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Solares are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Solares are rated 132 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,368. On rating alone Solares would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sámano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1367.6
0
ELO · Matches
55
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1367.6
1367.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
132.4
Current ELO Difference
-132.4
0.68
Expected score
0.32
0
History Matches
55
—
Residual Mean
-0.12
—
Overperformance
41.39
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.00
—
Goals for per game
0.40
—
Goals against per game
4.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
0.30
—
Goals for per game
0.70
—
Goals against per game
3.60
—
Win rate
10.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.60
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
55
—
PPG
0.95
—
Win rate
25.5%
—
Draw rate
18.2%
—
Loss rate
56.4%
—
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
—
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
27
—
PPG
0.63
—
Win rate
11.1%
—
Draw rate
29.6%
—
Loss rate
59.3%
—
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
0
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.02
—
Scoring rate
61.8%
—
BTTS rate
50.9%
—
Goals for per game
0.81
—
Scoring rate
55.6%
—
BTTS rate
51.9%
0
History Matches
55
—
Goals Mean
1.02
—
Goals Std
1.05
—
Scored 1+ rate
61.8%
—
Scored 2+ rate
27.3%
—
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.98
—
Conceding rate
81.8%
—
Goals against per game
2.22
—
Conceding rate
81.5%
0
History Matches
55
—
Conceded Mean
1.98
—
Conceded Std
1.61
—
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
30.9%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
2.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
55
—
Result entropy
0.89
—
Goal Difference Std
2.19
—
Stability score
10.67
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
54
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.79
0
Trailing Matches
26
—
Non-loss rate
7.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
195.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
31
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
0
Long Rest History Matches
21
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.73
—
Portability PPG Range
1.68
—
Portability Score
40.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO132.4
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-55
History Matches-27
History Matches-55
History Matches-55
History Matches-55
Eligible Matches-54
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-26
Halftime Coverage Matches-54
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-31
Long Rest History Matches-21
Current Team ELO132.4
Current Opponent ELO-132.4
Current ELO Difference264.7
Expected score0.36
History Matches-55
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Solares
L
Vimenor3–0Solares25 Oct · away
Pick: Vimenor 67% · hit D
Solares2–2Barquereño18 Oct · home
Pick: Solares 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sámano
W
Sámano4–0Selaya7 Nov · home
Pick: Sámano 45% · hit W
Laredo1–3Sámano1 Nov · away
Pick: Laredo 67% · missed D
Sámano1–1Bezana25 Oct · home
Pick: Sámano 41% · missed D
Torina1–1Sámano18 Oct · away
Pick: Torina 57% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Solares and Sámano meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Solares win 40.0%, draw 32.4%, Sámano win 27.6%. The pick is Solares win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.