ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Rosario Central Home · Elo 1,599
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Away · Elo 1,453
Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rosario Central win
Rosario Central winPick
67.6%
Draw
20.0%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win
12.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.6%
No59.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.3%
Under 2.563.7%

How much we know

Rosario Central history60 matches
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Rosario Central are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rosario Central are rated 146 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,453. On rating alone Rosario Central would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Rosario Central score more

    1.13 goals a game over 60 matches for Rosario Central, against 0.75 over 51 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.

  • Rosario Central concede fewer

    Rosario Central concede 0.67 a game, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.90.

  • Rosario Central games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Rosario Central matches, against 24% for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rosario Central
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.7
ELO
1452.9
60
ELO · Matches
51
1598.7
Current Team ELO
1452.9
1452.9
Current Opponent ELO
1598.7
145.8
Current ELO Difference
-145.8
0.70
Expected score
0.30
60
History Matches
51
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.04
56.43
Overperformance
46.81
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.60
0.70
Goals for per game
0.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.30
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
51
1.83
PPG
1.25
51.7%
Win rate
31.4%
28.3%
Draw rate
31.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
37.3%
51.7%
Over 1.5 rate
54.9%
35.0%
Over 2.5 rate
23.5%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
3.9%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
25
1.94
PPG
0.96
53.1%
Win rate
24.0%
34.4%
Draw rate
24.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
52.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
28.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
6.3%
Over 3.5 rate
8.0%
1.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
32
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
0.75
68.3%
Scoring rate
54.9%
36.7%
BTTS rate
31.4%
1.13
Goals for per game
0.72
68.8%
Scoring rate
48.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
36.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.22
73.9%
Scoring rate
22.2%
56.5%
BTTS rate
16.7%
60
History Matches
51
1.13
Goals Mean
0.75
0.99
Goals Std
0.76
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
54.9%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
19.6%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
0.90
51.7%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.24
46.9%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.39
69.6%
Conceding rate
72.2%
60
History Matches
51
0.67
Conceded Mean
0.90
0.77
Conceded Std
0.93
11.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.1%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
77.8%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.1%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
51
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.30
7.12
Stability score
0.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
51
14
Lead Matches
14
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.74
12
Trailing Matches
11
41.7%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.86
Rest days
78.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
21
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
18
1.61
PPG
0.39
43.5%
Win rate
5.6%
30.4%
Draw rate
22.2%
26.1%
Loss rate
72.2%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.8%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
5.6%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
23
Current Competition Matches
18
1.61
Current Competition PPG
0.39
0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.17
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.47
Portability PPG Range
1.36
71.69
Portability Score
42.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO145.8
PPG0.58
GF0.39
GA-0.24
PPG1.22
PPG0.98
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate13.4%
Scored 2+ rate15.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score6.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate32.6%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches5
Current Competition PPG1.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.38
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-0.89
Portability Score29.33
Rest days-3.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.08
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO145.8
Current Opponent ELO-145.8
Current ELO Difference291.6
Expected score0.40
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rosario Central

W
Sarmiento Junin1–2Rosario Central31 Oct · away
Pick: Sarmiento Junin 34% · missed
W
Rosario Central2–0Huracan25 Oct · home
Pick: Rosario Central 39% · hit
D
Banfield1–1Rosario Central6 Oct · away
Pick: Rosario Central 38% · missed
L
Rosario Central1–2Gimnasia L.P.29 Aug · home
Pick: Rosario Central 51% · missed
D
Talleres Cordoba2–2Rosario Central25 Aug · away
Pick: Rosario Central 42% · missed

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

L
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–2Gimnasia L.P.30 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia L.P. 37% · hit
L
Barracas Central2–1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto26 Oct · away
Pick: Barracas Central 53% · hit
L
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1–2Racing Club5 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Club 49% · hit
D
Huracan1–1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto29 Aug · away
Pick: Huracan 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rosario Central and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rosario Central win 67.6%, draw 20.0%, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win 12.3%. The pick is Rosario Central win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.3%. Both teams to score: 40.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.