Rudar vs Lovćen
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Rudar winPick
48.9%
Draw Result
24.5%
Lovćen win
26.6%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickRudar win · 48.9%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 24.5%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 50.1%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 50.8%
What happenedYes · 3–3
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
24%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.1
on average A pick at 49% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes49.2%
No50.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%
How much we know
Rudar history61 matches
Lovćen history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–3None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Rudar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,471 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Rudar score more
1.34 goals a game over 61 matches for Rudar, against 1.12 over 59 for Lovćen.
-
Defences are close
Rudar concede 1.34 a game, Lovćen 1.37.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of Rudar matches, against 44% for Lovćen. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1471.2
ELO
1479.7
61
ELO · Matches
59
1471.2
Current Team ELO
1479.7
1479.7
Current Opponent ELO
1471.2
-8.54
Current ELO Difference
8.54
0.49
Expected score
0.51
61
History Matches
59
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.66
Overperformance
48.35
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals 90
61
Matches
59
1.30
PPG
1.34
36.1%
Win rate
37.3%
21.3%
Draw rate
22.0%
42.6%
Loss rate
40.7%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
31
1.79
PPG
1.42
53.6%
Win rate
38.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.8%
28.6%
Loss rate
35.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.12
62.3%
Scoring rate
64.4%
41.0%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.16
67.9%
Scoring rate
67.7%
39.3%
BTTS rate
45.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
59
1.34
Goals Mean
1.12
1.50
Goals Std
1.15
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
28.8%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.34
Goals against per game
1.37
68.9%
Conceding rate
69.5%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.32
60.7%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
59
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.30
Conceded Std
1.40
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
61
History Matches
59
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.93
3.45
Stability score
2.88
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
60
Eligible Matches
58
14
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.77
18
Trailing Matches
17
22.2%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.79
Rest days
73.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
45
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.35
41.62
Portability Score
46.58
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
61
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-8.54
PPG-0.04
GF0.23
GA-0.03
PPG0.00
PPG0.37
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate8.9%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score0.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-4.96
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO-8.54
Current Opponent ELO8.54
Current ELO Difference-17.08
Expected score-0.02
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Rudar
D
Rudar1–1Mladost Lješkopolje25 Oct · home
Pick: Rudar 41% · missed L
Iskra1–0Rudar6 Oct · away
Pick: Iskra 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Lovćen
L
Kom2–1Lovćen25 Oct · away
Pick: Lovćen 42% · missed L
Lovćen1–5Jezero13 Oct · home
Pick: Jezero 43% · hit L
Mladost Lješkopolje2–1Lovćen6 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost Lješkopolje 53% · hit W
Lovćen3–2Berane29 Aug · home
Pick: Lovćen 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Rudar and Lovćen finished 3–3 in Second League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: Rudar win 48.9%, draw 24.5%, Lovćen win 26.6%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.