Salisbury vs Sholing
Match result probability Model pick: Salisbury win
Salisbury winPick
45.4%
Draw
22.6%
Sholing win
32.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.0%
No44.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%
How much we know
Salisbury history81 matches
Sholing history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Salisbury
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Salisbury are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sholing are rated 77 Elo points higher
Elo 1,554 against 1,476. On rating alone Sholing would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Sholing score more
1.40 goals a game over 81 matches for Salisbury, against 1.66 over 73 for Sholing.
-
Sholing concede fewer
Salisbury concede 1.54 a game, Sholing 1.25.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
57% of Salisbury matches, against 55% for Sholing. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sholing@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1476.2
ELO
1553.6
81
ELO · Matches
73
1476.2
Current Team ELO
1553.6
1553.6
Current Opponent ELO
1476.2
-77.39
Current ELO Difference
77.39
0.39
Expected score
0.61
81
History Matches
73
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.73
Overperformance
53.61
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.24
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals 90
81
Matches
73
1.10
PPG
1.62
28.4%
Win rate
45.2%
24.7%
Draw rate
26.0%
46.9%
Loss rate
28.8%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.1%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
39
Matches
32
1.44
PPG
1.47
43.6%
Win rate
37.5%
12.8%
Draw rate
34.4%
43.6%
Loss rate
28.1%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
34.4%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
39
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.66
70.4%
Scoring rate
84.9%
54.3%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.25
76.9%
Scoring rate
78.1%
51.3%
BTTS rate
43.8%
81
History Matches
73
1.40
Goals Mean
1.66
1.38
Goals Std
1.21
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.9%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.6%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
1.25
79.0%
Conceding rate
64.4%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.03
71.8%
Conceding rate
53.1%
81
History Matches
73
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.20
Conceded Std
1.21
48.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.4%
19.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.9%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.9%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
81
History Matches
73
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.73
3.70
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
80
Eligible Matches
71
25
Lead Matches
26
64.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.82
28
Trailing Matches
14
10.7%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
69
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
7
Long Rest History Matches
5
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.01
Portability PPG Range
1.00
61.27
Portability Score
57.93
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
81
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-77.39
PPG-0.52
GF-0.26
GA0.30
PPG-0.03
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.13
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score0.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.44
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score3.34
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO-77.39
Current Opponent ELO77.39
Current ELO Difference-154.8
Expected score-0.22
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Salisbury
W
Tonbridge Angels1–2Salisbury31 Oct · away
Pick: Salisbury 37% · hit W
Walton & Hersham0–2Salisbury27 Oct · away
Pick: Salisbury 46% · hit D
Salisbury1–1Dover24 Oct · home
Pick: Salisbury 55% · missed W
Salisbury3–0Eastbourne Borough17 Oct · home
Pick: Salisbury 45% · hit W
Salisbury1–0Billericay Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Salisbury 49% · hit Sholing
W
Sholing4–2Malvern Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Sholing 58% · hit D
Berkhamsted1–1Sholing27 Oct · away
Pick: Berkhamsted 38% · missed L
Weymouth3–2Sholing24 Oct · away
Pick: Sholing 52% · missed D
Yate Town1–1Sholing20 Oct · away
Pick: Yate Town 44% · missed W
Sholing2–0SE Dons17 Oct · home
Pick: Sholing 64% · hit About this match
Salisbury and Sholing meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Salisbury win 45.4%, draw 22.6%, Sholing win 32.0%. The pick is Salisbury win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.