Samaleswari SC vs Dempo
Match result probability Model pick: Dempo win
Samaleswari SC win
32.7%
Draw
26.5%
Dempo winPick
40.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
No46.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%
How much we know
Samaleswari SC history0 matches
Dempo history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Dempo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Dempo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dempo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1490.7
0
ELO · Matches
30
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1490.7
1490.7
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
9.25
Current ELO Difference
-9.25
0.51
Expected score
0.49
0
History Matches
30
—
Residual Mean
0.00
—
Overperformance
49.86
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.20
—
Goals for per game
0.60
—
Goals against per game
0.80
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.30
—
Goals for per game
1.20
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
30
—
PPG
1.20
—
Win rate
26.7%
—
Draw rate
40.0%
—
Loss rate
33.3%
—
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
13
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
23.1%
—
Draw rate
30.8%
—
Loss rate
46.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
—
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
—
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
0
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.63
—
Scoring rate
80.0%
—
BTTS rate
63.3%
—
Goals for per game
1.08
—
Scoring rate
61.5%
—
BTTS rate
46.2%
0
History Matches
30
—
Goals Mean
1.63
—
Goals Std
1.66
—
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
—
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
—
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.53
—
Conceding rate
76.7%
—
Goals against per game
1.54
—
Conceding rate
69.2%
0
History Matches
30
—
Conceded Mean
1.53
—
Conceded Std
1.09
—
Conceded 2+ rate
56.7%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
30
—
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
2.02
—
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
30
0
Lead Matches
12
—
Lead Win Rate
41.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.56
0
Trailing Matches
8
—
Non-loss rate
12.5%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
167.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
0
Normal Rest History Matches
17
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
0
Long Rest History Matches
10
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.17
—
Portability PPG Range
0.38
—
Portability Score
74.96
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO9.25
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-30
History Matches-13
History Matches-30
History Matches-30
History Matches-30
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-12
Trailing Matches-8
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest History Matches-10
Current Team ELO9.25
Current Opponent ELO-9.25
Current ELO Difference18.51
Expected score0.03
History Matches-30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Samaleswari SC
L
Gokulam3–2Samaleswari SC31 Oct · away
Pick: Gokulam 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Dempo
W
Dempo1–0Bengaluru United1 Nov · home
Pick: Dempo 49% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Samaleswari SC and Dempo meet in I-League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Samaleswari SC win 32.7%, draw 26.5%, Dempo win 40.8%. The pick is Dempo win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.3%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.