ScoreProb
NB III - Northwest Hungary Northwest - 15 2026

Sárisápi Bányász vs Dorogi FC

Sárisápi Bányász Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dorogi FC Away · Elo 1,572
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dorogi FC win
Sárisápi Bányász win
15.5%
Draw
20.4%
Dorogi FC winPick
64.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.4%
No37.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Sárisápi Bányász history7 matches
Dorogi FC history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Dorogi FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dorogi FC are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,492. On rating alone Dorogi FC would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 7 matches for Sárisápi Bányász, against 1.80 over 51 for Dorogi FC.

  • Dorogi FC concede fewer

    Sárisápi Bányász concede 2.00 a game, Dorogi FC 1.22.

  • Sárisápi Bányász games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Sárisápi Bányász matches, against 61% for Dorogi FC. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sárisápi Bányász
Dorogi FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.7
ELO
1571.8
7
ELO · Matches
51
1491.7
Current Team ELO
1571.8
1571.8
Current Opponent ELO
1491.7
-80.12
Current ELO Difference
80.12
0.39
Expected score
0.61
7
History Matches
51
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.07
48.14
Overperformance
54.95
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
1.60
Goals for per game
4.80
2.40
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
7
Matches
10
1.29
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
3.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.70
42.9%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.60
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
51
1.29
PPG
1.67
42.9%
Win rate
51.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
13.7%
57.1%
Loss rate
35.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.8%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
1.62
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
11.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
3
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
85.7%
Scoring rate
72.5%
71.4%
BTTS rate
47.1%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.73
100.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
4.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
7
History Matches
51
2.00
Goals Mean
1.80
1.60
Goals Std
1.82
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
42.9%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.22
85.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.31
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
2.25
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
7
History Matches
51
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.22
0.93
Conceded Std
1.09
85.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
51
0.62
Result entropy
0.90
2.45
Goal Difference Std
2.43
37.84
Stability score
10.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
51
1
Lead Matches
19
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
2
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
3
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
3
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.69
—
Portability PPG Range
1.65
—
Portability Score
42.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-80.12
PPG-0.38
GF0.20
GA0.78
PPG-1.00
PPG0.38
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.71
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-44
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate13.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate52.4%
Conceded 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-44
Result entropy-0.27
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score27.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate10.5%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.73
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-80.12
Current Opponent ELO80.12
Current ELO Difference-160.2
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-6.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sárisápi Bányász

D
Sárisápi Bányász2–2Zalaegerszegi TE II24 Oct · home
Pick: Sárisápi Bányász 54% · missed
L
Komárom1–0Sárisápi Bányász17 Oct · away
Pick: Komárom 72% · hit
W
Sárisápi Bányász1–0SC Sopron29 Aug · home
Pick: Sárisápi Bányász 40% · hit
L
Tatabánya3–0Sárisápi Bányász26 Aug · away
Pick: Tatabánya 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dorogi FC

W
Dorogi FC3–0SC Sopron31 Oct · home
Pick: Dorogi FC 62% · hit
D
Tatabánya2–2Dorogi FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Dorogi FC 41% · missed
W
Dorogi FC3–1Bicskei17 Oct · home
Pick: Dorogi FC 66% · hit
D
Dorogi FC2–2Haladás VSE4 Oct · home
Pick: Dorogi FC 51% · missed
L
Zalaegerszegi TE II4–2Dorogi FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Dorogi FC 64% · missed

About this match

Sárisápi Bányász and Dorogi FC meet in NB III - Northwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sárisápi Bányász win 15.5%, draw 20.4%, Dorogi FC win 64.1%. The pick is Dorogi FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 62.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.