ScoreProb
NB III - Northwest Hungary Northwest - 15 2026

Tatabánya vs Haladás VSE

Tatabánya Home · Elo 1,581
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Haladás VSE Away · Elo 1,585
Grosics Gyula Stadion, Tatabanya Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Haladás VSE win
Tatabánya win
35.7%
Draw
24.7%
Haladás VSE winPick
39.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Tatabánya history54 matches
Haladás VSE history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Haladás VSE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,581 against 1,585. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Tatabánya score more

    1.78 goals a game over 54 matches for Tatabánya, against 1.52 over 48 for Haladás VSE.

  • Haladás VSE concede fewer

    Tatabánya concede 1.52 a game, Haladás VSE 1.15.

  • Tatabánya games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Tatabánya matches, against 42% for Haladás VSE. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tatabánya
Haladás VSE
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.7
ELO
1585.4
54
ELO · Matches
48
1580.7
Current Team ELO
1585.4
1585.4
Current Opponent ELO
1580.7
-4.70
Current ELO Difference
4.70
0.49
Expected score
0.51
54
History Matches
48
0.06
Residual Mean
0.09
54.44
Overperformance
56.52
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.35
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.80
2.10
Goals for per game
2.30
0.90
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
90.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
48
1.63
PPG
1.65
50.0%
Win rate
47.9%
13.0%
Draw rate
20.8%
37.0%
Loss rate
31.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.65
PPG
1.43
47.8%
Win rate
39.1%
21.7%
Draw rate
26.1%
30.4%
Loss rate
34.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
1.52
81.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
57.4%
BTTS rate
45.8%
1.87
Goals for per game
1.26
73.9%
Scoring rate
69.6%
47.8%
BTTS rate
43.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
3.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
48
1.78
Goals Mean
1.52
1.45
Goals Std
1.38
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.15
72.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.04
69.6%
Conceding rate
65.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
48
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.32
Conceded Std
1.26
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
48
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.73
10.86
Stability score
5.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
48
20
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
12
21.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.75
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.77
47.02
Portability Score
40.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-4.70
PPG-0.02
GF0.26
GA0.37
PPG-1.25
PPG0.22
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate9.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score5.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.96
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.37
Portability Score6.97
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-4.70
Current Opponent ELO4.70
Current ELO Difference-9.40
Expected score-0.01
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tatabánya

D
MTE 19041–1Tatabánya31 Oct · away
Pick: MTE 1904 44% · missed
D
Tatabánya2–2Dorogi FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Dorogi FC 41% · missed
W
Balatonalmádi0–4Tatabánya30 Aug · away
Pick: Tatabánya 71% · hit
W
Tatabánya3–0Sárisápi Bányász26 Aug · home
Pick: Tatabánya 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Haladás VSE

W
Haladás VSE2–1Bicskei31 Oct · home
Pick: Haladás VSE 60% · hit
W
Gyori ETO II0–2Haladás VSE25 Oct · away
Pick: Haladás VSE 63% · hit
D
Haladás VSE2–2Puskás II18 Oct · home
Pick: Haladás VSE 63% · missed
D
Dorogi FC2–2Haladás VSE4 Oct · away
Pick: Dorogi FC 51% · missed
W
Veszprém2–4Haladás VSE26 Aug · away
Pick: Haladás VSE 46% · hit

About this match

Tatabánya and Haladás VSE meet in NB III - Northwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Grosics Gyula Stadion, Tatabanya. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tatabánya win 35.7%, draw 24.7%, Haladás VSE win 39.6%. The pick is Haladás VSE win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.