ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Sassuolo U20 vs Cesena U20

Sassuolo U20 Home · Elo 1,479
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cesena U20 Away · Elo 1,579
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sassuolo U20 win
Sassuolo U20 winPick
41.6%
Draw
25.3%
Cesena U20 win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Sassuolo U20 history59 matches
Cesena U20 history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sassuolo U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cesena U20 are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,579 against 1,479. On rating alone Cesena U20 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Cesena U20 score more

    1.24 goals a game over 59 matches for Sassuolo U20, against 1.85 over 59 for Cesena U20.

  • Sassuolo U20 concede fewer

    Sassuolo U20 concede 1.36 a game, Cesena U20 1.58.

  • Cesena U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Sassuolo U20 matches, against 69% for Cesena U20. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sassuolo U20
Cesena U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.1
ELO
1579.1
59
ELO · Matches
59
1479.1
Current Team ELO
1579.1
1579.1
Current Opponent ELO
1479.1
-100.0
Current ELO Difference
100.0
0.36
Expected score
0.64
59
History Matches
59
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.51
Overperformance
54.85
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
59
1.32
PPG
1.66
33.9%
Win rate
49.2%
30.5%
Draw rate
18.6%
35.6%
Loss rate
32.2%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.5%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
1.27
PPG
1.30
33.3%
Win rate
36.7%
27.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
39.4%
Loss rate
43.3%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
12.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.85
76.3%
Scoring rate
81.4%
61.0%
BTTS rate
67.8%
1.12
Goals for per game
1.80
78.8%
Scoring rate
90.0%
57.6%
BTTS rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
59
1.24
Goals Mean
1.85
0.98
Goals Std
1.33
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.6%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
32.2%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.58
74.6%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.83
75.8%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
59
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.19
Conceded Std
1.42
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
59
1.00
Result entropy
0.93
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.18
Stability score
6.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
57
17
Lead Matches
16
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.77
13
Trailing Matches
12
15.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.09
Rest days
74.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.89
Portability PPG Range
0.20
57.40
Portability Score
83.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-100.0
PPG-0.34
GF-0.61
GA-0.22
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.03
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches0
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-6.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-26.24
Rest days2.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-100.0
Current Opponent ELO100.0
Current ELO Difference-200.0
Expected score-0.28
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sassuolo U20

L
Lazio U203–1Sassuolo U2031 Oct · away
Pick: Lazio U20 45% · hit
D
Sassuolo U202–2Torino U2023 Oct · home
Pick: Sassuolo U20 52% · missed
D
Genoa U201–1Sassuolo U2018 Oct · away
Pick: Sassuolo U20 40% · missed
W
Sassuolo U204–2Albinoleffe U2012 Oct · home
Pick: Sassuolo U20 73% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cesena U20

L
Cesena U200–2Fiorentina U2031 Oct · home
Pick: Cesena U20 46% · missed
D
Cesena U202–2Monza U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Cesena U20 54% · missed
L
Lecce U201–0Cesena U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Lecce U20 37% · hit
D
Cesena U201–1Milan U2030 Aug · home
Pick: Cesena U20 40% · missed
W
Hellas Verona U200–1Cesena U2024 Aug · away
Pick: Hellas Verona U20 41% · missed

About this match

Sassuolo U20 and Cesena U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sassuolo U20 win 41.6%, draw 25.3%, Cesena U20 win 33.1%. The pick is Sassuolo U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.