ScoreProb
NB III - Northwest Hungary Northwest - 15 2026

SC Sopron vs MTE 1904

SC Sopron Home · Elo 1,459
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
MTE 1904 Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MTE 1904 win
SC Sopron win
23.3%
Draw
27.2%
MTE 1904 winPick
49.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

SC Sopron history50 matches
MTE 1904 history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why MTE 1904 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MTE 1904 are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,459. On rating alone MTE 1904 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • MTE 1904 score more

    1.28 goals a game over 50 matches for SC Sopron, against 1.74 over 53 for MTE 1904.

  • MTE 1904 concede fewer

    SC Sopron concede 1.72 a game, MTE 1904 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of SC Sopron matches, against 51% for MTE 1904. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Sopron
MTE 1904@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.0
ELO
1557.5
50
ELO · Matches
53
1459.0
Current Team ELO
1557.5
1557.5
Current Opponent ELO
1459.0
-98.54
Current ELO Difference
98.54
0.36
Expected score
0.64
50
History Matches
53
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
47.15
Overperformance
53.89
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
53
1.12
PPG
1.77
28.0%
Win rate
52.8%
28.0%
Draw rate
18.9%
44.0%
Loss rate
28.3%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.48
PPG
1.54
40.0%
Win rate
42.3%
28.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
32.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.74
72.0%
Scoring rate
69.8%
58.0%
BTTS rate
41.5%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.42
80.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
53
1.28
Goals Mean
1.74
1.18
Goals Std
1.58
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
0.98
80.0%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.00
76.0%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
53
1.72
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.34
Conceded Std
0.94
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.5%
26.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
53
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.99
2.23
Stability score
8.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
53
13
Lead Matches
23
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.94
19
Trailing Matches
7
26.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.06
Rest days
83.33
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
24
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.93
53.00
Portability Score
56.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-98.54
PPG-0.65
GF-0.46
GA0.74
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.06
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.24
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.74
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate25.5%
Conceded 3+ rate16.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-5.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-3.04
Rest days-0.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-98.54
Current Opponent ELO98.54
Current ELO Difference-197.1
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC Sopron

L
Dorogi FC3–0SC Sopron31 Oct · away
Pick: Dorogi FC 62% · hit
W
SC Sopron3–1Pápai Perutz24 Oct · home
Pick: SC Sopron 63% · hit
W
1908 SZAC0–3SC Sopron4 Oct · away
Pick: SC Sopron 55% · hit
L
Sárisápi Bányász1–0SC Sopron29 Aug · away
Pick: Sárisápi Bányász 40% · hit
L
Puskás II3–1SC Sopron26 Aug · away
Pick: Puskás II 39% · hit

MTE 1904

D
MTE 19041–1Tatabánya31 Oct · home
Pick: MTE 1904 44% · missed
D
Bicskei0–0MTE 190424 Oct · away
Pick: MTE 1904 53% · missed
W
MTE 19043–0Gyori ETO II17 Oct · home
Pick: MTE 1904 63% · hit
D
Komárom0–0MTE 190429 Aug · away
Pick: MTE 1904 37% · missed
W
MTE 19045–11908 SZAC26 Aug · home
Pick: MTE 1904 87% · hit

About this match

SC Sopron and MTE 1904 meet in NB III - Northwest on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: SC Sopron win 23.3%, draw 27.2%, MTE 1904 win 49.4%. The pick is MTE 1904 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.