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Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 19 2026

Schwaben Augsburg vs FC Schweinfurt 05

Schwaben Augsburg Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Schweinfurt 05 Away · Elo 1,414
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Schwaben Augsburg win
Schwaben Augsburg winPick
46.1%
Draw
24.9%
FC Schweinfurt 05 win
29.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Schwaben Augsburg history57 matches
FC Schweinfurt 05 history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Schwaben Augsburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Schwaben Augsburg are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,414. On rating alone Schwaben Augsburg would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 57 matches for Schwaben Augsburg, against 1.29 over 70 for FC Schweinfurt 05.

  • Schwaben Augsburg concede fewer

    Schwaben Augsburg concede 1.61 a game, FC Schweinfurt 05 2.14.

  • FC Schweinfurt 05 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Schwaben Augsburg matches, against 69% for FC Schweinfurt 05. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schwaben Augsburg
FC Schweinfurt 05@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.5
ELO
1414.2
57
ELO · Matches
70
1489.5
Current Team ELO
1414.2
1414.2
Current Opponent ELO
1489.5
75.27
Current ELO Difference
-75.27
0.61
Expected score
0.39
57
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.61
Overperformance
45.26
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
70
1.16
PPG
0.91
29.8%
Win rate
24.3%
26.3%
Draw rate
18.6%
43.9%
Loss rate
57.1%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
36
0.97
PPG
0.64
20.7%
Win rate
16.7%
34.5%
Draw rate
13.9%
44.8%
Loss rate
69.4%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
29
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.29
75.4%
Scoring rate
75.7%
63.2%
BTTS rate
67.1%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.11
79.3%
Scoring rate
69.4%
72.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
70
1.30
Goals Mean
1.29
1.06
Goals Std
1.07
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
36.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
2.14
87.7%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.76
Goals against per game
2.53
93.1%
Conceding rate
97.2%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
70
1.61
Conceded Mean
2.14
1.12
Conceded Std
1.31
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
67.1%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.7%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
2.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
6.9%
Clean-sheet rate
2.8%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
6.9%
Clean-sheet rate
2.8%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
12.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
70
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.78
2.27
Stability score
11.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
69
15
Lead Matches
21
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
52.4%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.63
21
Trailing Matches
28
28.6%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
3.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.88
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.71
34
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
19
Long Rest History Matches
33
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.11
63.22
Portability Score
53.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO75.27
PPG0.24
GF0.01
GA-0.53
PPG-0.60
PPG0.33
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.53
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.06
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-8.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate7.6%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score9.55
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.29
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO75.27
Current Opponent ELO-75.27
Current ELO Difference150.5
Expected score0.21
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schwaben Augsburg

W
SpVgg Unterhaching0–2Schwaben Augsburg7 Nov · away
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 45% · missed
W
Schwaben Augsburg2–1Eltersdorf31 Oct · home
Pick: Eltersdorf 39% · missed
W
Greuther Fürth II0–2Schwaben Augsburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 47% · missed
W
Schwaben Augsburg2–1Aubstadt17 Oct · home
Pick: Aubstadt 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Schweinfurt 05

W
FC Schweinfurt 052–1Wacker Burghausen7 Nov · home
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 43% · missed
L
Memmingen1–0FC Schweinfurt 0531 Oct · away
Pick: Memmingen 58% · hit
W
FC Schweinfurt 052–1Landsberg23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Schweinfurt 05 47% · hit
L
Augsburg II3–0FC Schweinfurt 0518 Oct · away
Pick: Augsburg II 53% · hit
D
FC Schweinfurt 051–1Ansbach13 Oct · home
Pick: FC Schweinfurt 05 58% · missed

About this match

Schwaben Augsburg and FC Schweinfurt 05 meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Schwaben Augsburg win 46.1%, draw 24.9%, FC Schweinfurt 05 win 29.0%. The pick is Schwaben Augsburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.