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Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 19 2026

Wacker Burghausen vs Illertissen

Wacker Burghausen Home · Elo 1,520
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Illertissen Away · Elo 1,615
Wacker Arena, Burghausen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Illertissen win
Wacker Burghausen win
26.7%
Draw
23.6%
Illertissen winPick
49.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Wacker Burghausen history63 matches
Illertissen history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Illertissen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Illertissen are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,520. On rating alone Illertissen would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Illertissen score more

    1.78 goals a game over 63 matches for Wacker Burghausen, against 2.09 over 70 for Illertissen.

  • Illertissen concede fewer

    Wacker Burghausen concede 1.48 a game, Illertissen 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Wacker Burghausen matches, against 69% for Illertissen. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wacker Burghausen
Illertissen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.3
ELO
1615.0
63
ELO · Matches
70
1520.3
Current Team ELO
1615.0
1615.0
Current Opponent ELO
1520.3
-94.71
Current ELO Difference
94.71
0.37
Expected score
0.63
63
History Matches
70
0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
51.70
Overperformance
57.32
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
1.80
Goals for per game
2.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
70
1.56
PPG
1.77
44.4%
Win rate
51.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
22.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.7%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
63.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
30
1.88
PPG
1.63
52.9%
Win rate
46.7%
29.4%
Draw rate
23.3%
17.6%
Loss rate
30.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
34
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
2.09
81.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
54.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.09
Goals for per game
2.13
88.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
61.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
70
1.78
Goals Mean
2.09
1.48
Goals Std
1.60
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
61.4%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
37.1%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
2.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.50
64.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
70
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.38
Conceded Std
1.08
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.06
3.44
Stability score
6.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
68
17
Lead Matches
28
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.82
20
Trailing Matches
18
15.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.88
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.20
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.62
Portability PPG Range
1.25
67.71
Portability Score
52.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-94.71
PPG-0.22
GF-0.31
GA0.15
PPG-0.80
PPG0.25
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate18.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Conceded 2+ rate5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-2.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score15.25
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-94.71
Current Opponent ELO94.71
Current ELO Difference-189.4
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wacker Burghausen

L
FC Schweinfurt 052–1Wacker Burghausen7 Nov · away
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 43% · missed
W
Wacker Burghausen2–0SpVgg Unterhaching30 Oct · home
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · hit
D
Buchbach3–3Wacker Burghausen23 Oct · away
Pick: Buchbach 57% · missed
D
Eltersdorf2–2Wacker Burghausen13 Oct · away
Pick: Eltersdorf 48% · missed
L
Wacker Burghausen4–5Vilzing29 Aug · home
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · missed

Illertissen

L
Illertissen2–3Ansbach6 Nov · home
Pick: Illertissen 73% · missed
W
Illertissen4–0Greuther Fürth II30 Oct · home
Pick: Illertissen 67% · hit
L
Augsburg II2–1Illertissen24 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 57% · missed
W
Illertissen4–0Buchbach16 Oct · home
Pick: Illertissen 53% · hit
D
Aubstadt0–0Illertissen13 Oct · away
Pick: Illertissen 48% · missed

About this match

Wacker Burghausen and Illertissen meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Wacker Arena, Burghausen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Wacker Burghausen win 26.7%, draw 23.6%, Illertissen win 49.6%. The pick is Illertissen win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.