TSV 1860 München vs SpVgg Unterhaching
Match result probability Model pick: TSV 1860 München win
TSV 1860 München winPick
50.2%
Draw
21.7%
SpVgg Unterhaching win
28.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.9%
No43.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%
How much we know
TSV 1860 München history67 matches
SpVgg Unterhaching history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours TSV 1860 München
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why TSV 1860 München are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,553 against 1,554. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.66 goals a game over 67 matches for TSV 1860 München, against 1.69 over 67 for SpVgg Unterhaching.
-
Defences are close
TSV 1860 München concede 1.27 a game, SpVgg Unterhaching 1.30.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
60% of TSV 1860 München matches, against 60% for SpVgg Unterhaching. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SpVgg Unterhaching@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1552.7
ELO
1554.4
67
ELO · Matches
67
1552.7
Current Team ELO
1554.4
1554.4
Current Opponent ELO
1552.7
-1.69
Current ELO Difference
1.69
0.50
Expected score
0.50
67
History Matches
67
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.59
Overperformance
52.41
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals 90
67
Matches
67
1.64
PPG
1.51
46.3%
Win rate
44.8%
25.4%
Draw rate
16.4%
28.4%
Loss rate
38.8%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
37
1.72
PPG
1.41
46.9%
Win rate
40.5%
31.3%
Draw rate
18.9%
21.9%
Loss rate
40.5%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
32
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.69
79.1%
Scoring rate
73.1%
55.2%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.65
84.4%
Scoring rate
70.3%
65.6%
BTTS rate
56.8%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.66
Goals Mean
1.69
1.33
Goals Std
1.57
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
23.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.30
71.6%
Conceding rate
70.1%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.54
78.1%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Conceded Std
1.12
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
67
History Matches
67
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.21
3.34
Stability score
6.81
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
67
Eligible Matches
65
21
Lead Matches
29
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
86.2%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.91
20
Trailing Matches
19
40.0%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.88
Rest days
91.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
35
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.45
58.48
Portability Score
44.74
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
67
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.69
PPG0.13
GF-0.03
GA-0.03
PPG0.25
PPG0.31
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate1.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-3.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate24.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score13.74
Rest days-7.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-1.69
Current Opponent ELO1.69
Current ELO Difference-3.37
Expected score0.00
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
TSV 1860 München
W
TSV 1860 München4–3Buchbach30 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 40% · hit W
Eichstätt0–2TSV 1860 München25 Oct · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 52% · hit L
TSV 1860 München2–4Bayern München II18 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 62% · missed W
TSV 1860 München2–1Bayreuth13 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 51% · hit D
TSV 1860 München1–1Landsberg30 Aug · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 59% · missed SpVgg Unterhaching
L
SpVgg Unterhaching0–2Schwaben Augsburg7 Nov · home
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 45% · missed L
Wacker Burghausen2–0SpVgg Unterhaching30 Oct · away
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · hit W
SpVgg Unterhaching2–1Ansbach24 Oct · home
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 60% · hit D
Vilzing0–0SpVgg Unterhaching17 Oct · away
Pick: Vilzing 51% · missed W
SpVgg Unterhaching4–0Landsberg13 Oct · home
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 54% · hit About this match
TSV 1860 München and SpVgg Unterhaching meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: TSV 1860 München win 50.2%, draw 21.7%, SpVgg Unterhaching win 28.1%. The pick is TSV 1860 München win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.