Scotland Mabvuku vs Chicken Inn
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Scotland Mabvuku winPick
59.3%
Draw Result
26.1%
Chicken Inn win
14.6%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickScotland Mabvuku win · 59.3%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 26.1%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 65.7%
What happenedUnder · No goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 62.4%
What happenedNo · 0–0
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
26%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.8
on average A pick at 59% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
46'
Yellow card
85'
Yellow card
Both teams to score
Yes37.6%
No62.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.534.3%
Under 2.565.7%
How much we know
Scotland Mabvuku history59 matches
Chicken Inn history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–0Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Scotland Mabvuku are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Scotland Mabvuku are rated 158 Elo points higher
Elo 1,662 against 1,505. On rating alone Scotland Mabvuku would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.
-
Scotland Mabvuku score far more
1.44 goals a game over 59 matches for Scotland Mabvuku, against 0.73 over 60 for Chicken Inn.
-
Scotland Mabvuku concede fewer
Scotland Mabvuku concede 0.51 a game, Chicken Inn 0.75.
-
Scotland Mabvuku games more often go over 2.5 goals
34% of Scotland Mabvuku matches, against 20% for Chicken Inn. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chicken Inn@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1662.3
ELO
1504.6
59
ELO · Matches
60
1662.3
Current Team ELO
1504.6
1504.6
Current Opponent ELO
1662.3
157.7
Current ELO Difference
-157.7
0.71
Expected score
0.29
59
History Matches
60
0.13
Residual Mean
0.00
59.67
Overperformance
50.34
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.70
1.90
Goals for per game
1.10
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
59
Matches
60
2.03
PPG
1.27
57.6%
Win rate
31.7%
30.5%
Draw rate
31.7%
11.9%
Loss rate
36.7%
55.9%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
33.9%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
11.9%
Over 3.5 rate
5.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
30
1.96
PPG
1.07
57.1%
Win rate
26.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
17.9%
Loss rate
46.7%
53.6%
Over 1.5 rate
36.7%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.44
Goals for per game
0.73
71.2%
Scoring rate
50.0%
32.2%
BTTS rate
28.3%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.70
71.4%
Scoring rate
46.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.78
70.4%
Scoring rate
55.6%
25.9%
BTTS rate
29.6%
59
History Matches
60
1.44
Goals Mean
0.73
1.29
Goals Std
0.89
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
18.3%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
3.3%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.51
Goals against per game
0.75
40.7%
Conceding rate
56.7%
0.46
Goals against per game
0.87
35.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.37
Goals against per game
0.85
29.6%
Conceding rate
55.6%
59
History Matches
60
0.51
Conceded Mean
0.75
0.70
Conceded Std
0.79
8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.0%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
0.46
Venue Conceded Mean
0.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
70.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
59
History Matches
60
0.85
Result entropy
1.00
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.10
15.10
Stability score
0.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
59
24
Lead Matches
12
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.81
3
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.00
Rest days
73.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.22
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals 170
27
Matches
27
2.11
PPG
1.37
59.3%
Win rate
37.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
7.4%
Loss rate
37.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
48.1%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
22.2%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
27
Current Competition Matches
27
2.11
Current Competition PPG
1.37
1.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.07
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.19
87.54
Portability Score
84.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
59
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO157.7
PPG0.77
GF0.71
GA-0.24
PPG0.74
PPG0.90
PPG-0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate31.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate21.2%
Scored 2+ rate27.4%
Scored 3+ rate13.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.67
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.51
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score14.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.74
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.26
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score3.40
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.72
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO157.7
Current Opponent ELO-157.7
Current ELO Difference315.3
Expected score0.43
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Scotland Mabvuku
W
CAPS United0–1Scotland Mabvuku29 Oct · away
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 41% · hit L
Petro de Luanda3–0Scotland Mabvuku23 Oct · away
Pick: Petro de Luanda 42% · hit W
Scotland Mabvuku2–0Petro de Luanda18 Oct · home
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 36% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Chicken Inn
D
Chicken Inn0–0Kariba24 Oct · home
Pick: Chicken Inn 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Scotland Mabvuku and Chicken Inn finished 0–0 in Premier Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Scotland Mabvuku win 59.3%, draw 26.1%, Chicken Inn win 14.6%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.