ScoreProb
Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Round 33 2026

Chicken Inn vs Agama

Chicken Inn Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Agama Away · Elo 1,448
Luveve Stadium, Bulawayo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chicken Inn win
Chicken Inn winPick
50.5%
Draw
33.6%
Agama win
15.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.6%
No59.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.5%
Under 2.562.5%

How much we know

Chicken Inn history60 matches
Agama history26 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why Chicken Inn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chicken Inn are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,448. On rating alone Chicken Inn would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Chicken Inn score more

    0.73 goals a game over 60 matches for Chicken Inn, against 0.62 over 26 for Agama.

  • Chicken Inn concede fewer

    Chicken Inn concede 0.75 a game, Agama 1.27.

  • Agama games more often go over 2.5 goals

    20% of Chicken Inn matches, against 35% for Agama. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chicken Inn
Agama@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.6
ELO
1447.7
60
ELO · Matches
26
1504.6
Current Team ELO
1447.7
1447.7
Current Opponent ELO
1504.6
56.93
Current ELO Difference
-56.93
0.58
Expected score
0.42
60
History Matches
26
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.10
50.34
Overperformance
44.37
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
26
1.27
PPG
0.85
31.7%
Win rate
19.2%
31.7%
Draw rate
26.9%
36.7%
Loss rate
53.8%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
5.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
13
1.47
PPG
0.77
36.7%
Win rate
23.1%
36.7%
Draw rate
7.7%
26.7%
Loss rate
69.2%
43.3%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
3.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
30
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.73
Goals for per game
0.62
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
28.3%
BTTS rate
34.6%
0.77
Goals for per game
0.62
53.3%
Scoring rate
46.2%
26.7%
BTTS rate
30.8%
0.78
Goals for per game
0.62
55.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
29.6%
BTTS rate
34.6%
60
History Matches
26
0.73
Goals Mean
0.62
0.89
Goals Std
0.68
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
18.3%
Scored 2+ rate
11.5%
3.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.77
Venue Goals Mean
0.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.75
Goals against per game
1.27
56.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.62
46.7%
Conceding rate
84.6%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.27
55.6%
Conceding rate
73.1%
60
History Matches
26
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.79
Conceded Std
1.06
15.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
53.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
53.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
26
1.00
Result entropy
0.91
1.10
Goal Difference Std
1.24
0.22
Stability score
8.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
26
12
Lead Matches
5
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.73
12
Trailing Matches
9
16.7%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.44
20
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
27
Matches
26
1.37
PPG
0.85
37.0%
Win rate
19.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
26.9%
37.0%
Loss rate
53.8%
48.1%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
22.2%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
27
Current Competition Matches
26
1.37
Current Competition PPG
0.85
-0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.65
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.09
Portability PPG Std
—
0.19
Portability PPG Range
—
84.14
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
26
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO56.93
PPG0.42
GF0.12
GA-0.52
PPG0.52
PPG0.70
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate37.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches34
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate6.8%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches34
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches34
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-8.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.58
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.99
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO56.93
Current Opponent ELO-56.93
Current ELO Difference113.9
Expected score0.16
History Matches34
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance5.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chicken Inn

D
Scotland Mabvuku0–0Chicken Inn4 Nov · away
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 59% · missed
D
Chicken Inn0–0Kariba24 Oct · home
Pick: Chicken Inn 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Agama

W
Agama3–2TelOne25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
W
Kariba0–1Agama17 Oct · away
Pick: Kariba 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chicken Inn and Agama meet in Premier Soccer League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Luveve Stadium, Bulawayo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chicken Inn win 50.5%, draw 33.6%, Agama win 15.9%. The pick is Chicken Inn win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.5%. Both teams to score: 40.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.