ScoreProb
Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Round 33 2026

Dynamos vs Manica Diamonds

Dynamos Home · Elo 1,557
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manica Diamonds Away · Elo 1,427
Rufaro Stadium, Harare Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dynamos win
Dynamos winPick
58.7%
Draw
28.0%
Manica Diamonds win
13.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.5%
No61.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%

How much we know

Dynamos history59 matches
Manica Diamonds history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.7%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why Dynamos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dynamos are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,557 against 1,427. On rating alone Dynamos would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Dynamos score far more

    0.95 goals a game over 59 matches for Dynamos, against 0.58 over 60 for Manica Diamonds.

  • Dynamos concede fewer

    Dynamos concede 0.73 a game, Manica Diamonds 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    27% of Dynamos matches, against 23% for Manica Diamonds. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dynamos
Manica Diamonds@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1557.4
ELO
1427.4
59
ELO · Matches
60
1557.4
Current Team ELO
1427.4
1427.4
Current Opponent ELO
1557.4
130.0
Current ELO Difference
-130.0
0.68
Expected score
0.32
59
History Matches
60
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.78
Overperformance
45.83
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
0.40
Goals for per game
0.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.70
1.10
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
60
1.39
PPG
1.00
30.5%
Win rate
20.0%
47.5%
Draw rate
40.0%
22.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
52.5%
Over 1.5 rate
46.7%
27.1%
Over 2.5 rate
23.3%
10.2%
Over 3.5 rate
11.7%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
1.43
PPG
0.66
30.0%
Win rate
10.3%
53.3%
Draw rate
34.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
55.2%
46.7%
Over 1.5 rate
51.7%
23.3%
Over 2.5 rate
27.6%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.95
Goals for per game
0.58
59.3%
Scoring rate
46.7%
35.6%
BTTS rate
31.7%
0.93
Goals for per game
0.45
56.7%
Scoring rate
37.9%
30.0%
BTTS rate
31.0%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.54
76.9%
Scoring rate
38.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
30.8%
59
History Matches
60
0.95
Goals Mean
0.58
1.00
Goals Std
0.71
59.3%
Scored 1+ rate
46.7%
25.4%
Scored 2+ rate
10.0%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
1.7%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
0.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.73
Goals against per game
1.07
52.5%
Conceding rate
65.0%
0.57
Goals against per game
1.38
43.3%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.54
53.8%
Conceding rate
76.9%
59
History Matches
60
0.73
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.80
Conceded Std
1.09
18.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
62.1%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
61.5%
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
62.1%
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
60
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.28
4.50
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
57
12
Lead Matches
9
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.70
11
Trailing Matches
16
54.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.63
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
26
1.65
PPG
0.73
38.5%
Win rate
15.4%
50.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
11.5%
Loss rate
57.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
26
Current Competition Matches
26
1.65
Current Competition PPG
0.73
0.62
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.48
67.93
Portability Score
67.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO130.0
PPG0.39
GF0.37
GA-0.34
PPG0.92
PPG0.78
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate12.7%
Scored 2+ rate15.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.73
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.96
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate27.8%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate29.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.92
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.62
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.14
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.09
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO130.0
Current Opponent ELO-130.0
Current ELO Difference260.0
Expected score0.36
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dynamos

D
Ngezi Platinum1–1Dynamos24 Oct · away
Pick: Ngezi Platinum 39% · missed
L
Dynamos0–1Hardrock17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Manica Diamonds

L
Manica Diamonds0–1Bulawayo Chiefs25 Oct · home
Pick: Bulawayo Chiefs 35% · hit
D
Highlanders0–0Manica Diamonds18 Oct · away
Pick: Highlanders 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dynamos and Manica Diamonds meet in Premier Soccer League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Rufaro Stadium, Harare. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dynamos win 58.7%, draw 28.0%, Manica Diamonds win 13.4%. The pick is Dynamos win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.0%. Both teams to score: 38.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.