ScoreProb
Friendlies World Friendly International 2026

Thailand U23 vs Qatar U23

Thailand U23 Home · Elo 1,504
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Qatar U23 Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Thailand U23 win
Thailand U23 winPick
40.6%
Draw
25.5%
Qatar U23 win
33.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Thailand U23 history15 matches
Qatar U23 history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.

Why Thailand U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,504 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.87 goals a game over 15 matches for Thailand U23, against 1.71 over 14 for Qatar U23.

  • Qatar U23 concede fewer

    Thailand U23 concede 1.40 a game, Qatar U23 0.93.

  • Thailand U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Thailand U23 matches, against 29% for Qatar U23. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thailand U23
Qatar U23@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.4
ELO
1500.2
15
ELO · Matches
14
1504.4
Current Team ELO
1500.2
1500.2
Current Opponent ELO
1504.4
4.19
Current ELO Difference
-4.19
0.51
Expected score
0.49
15
History Matches
14
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.87
Overperformance
49.47
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
14
1.40
PPG
1.36
33.3%
Win rate
35.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
26.7%
Loss rate
35.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
8
1.50
PPG
1.13
37.5%
Win rate
25.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
37.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
12.5%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
8
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
1.71
86.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
35.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.63
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
15
History Matches
14
1.87
Goals Mean
1.71
1.50
Goals Std
3.26
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
0.93
66.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
15
History Matches
14
1.40
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.40
Conceded Std
0.70
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
14
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
2.16
Goal Difference Std
3.65
1.22
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
14
6
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.83
4
Trailing Matches
3
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
155.9
Rest days
78.74
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
2
Normal Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
4
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
2
0.80
PPG
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
5
Current Competition Matches
2
0.80
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.73
Portability PPG Std
1.25
1.67
Portability PPG Range
3.00
40.72
Portability Score
28.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.19
PPG0.04
GF0.15
GA0.47
PPG0.30
PPG0.38
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-1.76
Scored 1+ rate29.5%
Scored 2+ rate24.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.70
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-1.49
Stability score0.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.30
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.52
Portability PPG Range-1.33
Portability Score12.11
Rest days77.18
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO4.19
Current Opponent ELO-4.19
Current ELO Difference8.38
Expected score0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Thailand U23

No earlier results with our pick yet

Qatar U23

L
Qatar U230–3Al-Khor5 Nov · home
Pick: Qatar U23 60% · missed
D
Qatar U232–2Al-Markhiya28 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Markhiya 45% · missed
W
Muaither SC1–2Qatar U2315 Oct · away
Pick: Muaither SC 44% · missed
L
Al Bidda SC2–0Qatar U2331 Aug · away
Pick: Al Bidda SC 46% · hit
D
UMM Salal1–1Qatar U2325 Aug · away
Pick: UMM Salal 62% · missed

About this match

Thailand U23 and Qatar U23 meet in Friendlies on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Thailand U23 win 40.6%, draw 25.5%, Qatar U23 win 33.9%. The pick is Thailand U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.