Septemvri Sofia U19 vs Fiorentina U19
Septemvri Sofia U19
Full time
0–3
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 10:30 UTC
Fiorentina U19
What we said before kickoff Result: Fiorentina U19 win
Septemvri Sofia U19 win
33.8%
Draw
28.5%
Fiorentina U19 winPick Result
37.7%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickFiorentina U19 win · 37.7%
What happenedFiorentina U19 win · we gave it 37.7%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 51.7%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 52.0%
What happenedNo · 0–3
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Fiorentina U19 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
38%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.7
on average A pick at 38% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
Yellow cardM. Petkov
26' 40'
GoalM. Boskovic
SubstitutionV. Vasilev off · G. Stefanov on
46' Yellow cardV. Mihaylov
56' Yellow cardV. Dobrev
56' SubstitutionA. Dzhamov off · D. Chelebiev on
62' 62'
SubstitutionT. Campaniello off · G. Forte on
62'
SubstitutionF. Croci off · D. Atzeni on
65'
Own goalD. Kanev
Yellow cardN. Genchev
67' SubstitutionV. Dobrev off · Y. Atalakov on
72' 72'
GoalA. Angeloni · assist G. Forte
72'
SubstitutionN. Turnone off · M. Barbone on
72'
SubstitutionS. Beldenti off · S. Cianciulli on
SubstitutionB. Stoichkov off · D. Tsenov on
73' 77'
SubstitutionA. Perrotti off · T. Tosti on
SubstitutionV. Mihaylov off · A. Marinov on
79' Both teams to score
Yes52.0%
No48.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%
How much we know
Septemvri Sofia U19 history0 matches
Fiorentina U19 history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 10:30 UTC
- Full time: 0–3Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Fiorentina U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Fiorentina U19 are rated 50 Elo points higher
Elo 1,550 against 1,500. On rating alone Fiorentina U19 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Septemvri Sofia U19
Fiorentina U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1550.4
0
ELO · Matches
11
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1550.4
1550.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-50.44
Current ELO Difference
50.44
0.43
Expected score
0.57
0
History Matches
11
—
Residual Mean
0.30
—
Overperformance
60.79
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.40
—
Goals for per game
1.80
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Win rate
80.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
2.40
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
80.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
11
—
PPG
2.45
—
Win rate
81.8%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
18.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
—
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals 100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
2.09
—
Scoring rate
90.9%
—
BTTS rate
54.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
0
History Matches
11
—
Goals Mean
2.09
—
Goals Std
1.24
—
Scored 1+ rate
90.9%
—
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
—
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.09
—
Conceding rate
63.6%
—
Goals against per game
4.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
0
History Matches
11
—
Conceded Mean
1.09
—
Conceded Std
1.16
—
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
—
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
—
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
11
—
Result entropy
0.43
—
Goal Difference Std
1.65
—
Stability score
56.84
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
11
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
2
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
—
First Half Goals For Mean
1.18
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
229.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
5
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
0
Normal Rest History Matches
2
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
3
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.25
—
Portability PPG Range
0.50
—
Portability Score
66.67
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-50.44
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
History Matches-1
History Matches-11
History Matches-11
History Matches-11
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-2
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest History Matches-3
Current Team ELO-50.44
Current Opponent ELO50.44
Current ELO Difference-100.9
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Septemvri Sofia U19
L
Fiorentina U195–0Septemvri Sofia U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Fiorentina U19 61% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Fiorentina U19
W
Fiorentina U195–0Septemvri Sofia U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina U19 61% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Septemvri Sofia U19 and Fiorentina U19 finished 0–3 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Septemvri Sofia U19 win 33.8%, draw 28.5%, Fiorentina U19 win 37.7%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.