ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Sevilla vs Alaves

Sevilla Home · Elo 1,545
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alaves Away · Elo 1,550
Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alaves win
Sevilla win
28.7%
Draw
31.6%
Alaves winPick
39.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

How much we know

Sevilla history72 matches
Alaves history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Alaves are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,545 against 1,550. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.26 goals a game over 72 matches for Sevilla, against 1.21 over 70 for Alaves.

  • Alaves concede fewer

    Sevilla concede 1.42 a game, Alaves 1.13.

  • Sevilla games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Sevilla matches, against 39% for Alaves. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sevilla
Alaves@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.5
ELO
1550.4
72
ELO · Matches
70
1545.5
Current Team ELO
1550.4
1550.4
Current Opponent ELO
1545.5
-4.91
Current ELO Difference
4.91
0.49
Expected score
0.51
72
History Matches
70
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.87
Overperformance
53.51
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
70
1.24
PPG
1.36
33.3%
Win rate
35.7%
23.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
43.1%
Loss rate
35.7%
73.6%
Over 1.5 rate
61.4%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.6%
26.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.6%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.31
PPG
1.16
34.4%
Win rate
28.1%
28.1%
Draw rate
31.3%
37.5%
Loss rate
40.6%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
59.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.21
75.0%
Scoring rate
72.9%
59.7%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.25
78.1%
Scoring rate
68.8%
62.5%
BTTS rate
46.9%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.26
Goals Mean
1.21
1.08
Goals Std
1.18
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
9.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.13
81.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.28
84.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
72
History Matches
70
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.08
Conceded Std
1.00
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.1%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.48
2.62
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
70
17
Lead Matches
19
58.8%
Lead Win Rate
57.9%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.65
20
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.21
Rest days
83.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.18
Portability PPG Range
1.27
53.24
Portability Score
51.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-4.91
PPG-0.12
GF0.05
GA0.29
PPG0.00
PPG0.16
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate2.1%
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score2.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate0.9%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score2.02
Rest days-6.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-4.91
Current Opponent ELO4.91
Current ELO Difference-9.81
Expected score-0.01
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sevilla

L
Getafe3–1Sevilla1 Nov · away
Pick: Sevilla 44% · missed
W
Hortaleza0–3Sevilla29 Oct · away
Pick: Sevilla 38% · hit
W
Sevilla2–0Osasuna26 Oct · home
Pick: Sevilla 45% · hit
L
Real Madrid4–1Sevilla18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid 48% · hit
D
Levante3–3Sevilla12 Oct · away
Pick: Sevilla 38% · missed

Alaves

L
Barcelona6–1Alaves31 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona 62% · hit
D
Alaves1–1Malaga23 Oct · home
Pick: Alaves 51% · missed
L
Celta Vigo2–1Alaves18 Oct · away
Pick: Celta Vigo 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sevilla and Alaves meet in La Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sevilla win 28.7%, draw 31.6%, Alaves win 39.7%. The pick is Alaves win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.