ScoreProb
Premier League Hong Kong SAR China Round 8 2026

Shatin vs BC Rangers

Shatin Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
BC Rangers Away · Elo 1,433
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shatin win
Shatin winPick
51.6%
Draw
19.3%
BC Rangers win
29.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

Shatin history19 matches
BC Rangers history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 07:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Shatin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shatin are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,433. On rating alone Shatin would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Shatin score more

    1.58 goals a game over 19 matches for Shatin, against 1.34 over 29 for BC Rangers.

  • Defences are close

    Shatin concede 1.79 a game, BC Rangers 1.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Shatin matches, against 62% for BC Rangers. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shatin
BC Rangers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.2
ELO
1433.1
19
ELO · Matches
29
1484.2
Current Team ELO
1433.1
1433.1
Current Opponent ELO
1484.2
51.02
Current ELO Difference
-51.02
0.57
Expected score
0.43
19
History Matches
29
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.12
48.26
Overperformance
43.03
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
29
1.11
PPG
1.00
26.3%
Win rate
27.6%
31.6%
Draw rate
17.2%
42.1%
Loss rate
55.2%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
93.1%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
15
1.00
PPG
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
10
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.34
68.4%
Scoring rate
72.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.30
Goals for per game
0.93
70.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
29
1.58
Goals Mean
1.34
1.82
Goals Std
1.27
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
26.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.5%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.79
Goals against per game
1.97
84.2%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.30
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
93.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
19
History Matches
29
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.40
Conceded Std
1.38
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.6%
36.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.6%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
2.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
29
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
2.48
Goal Difference Std
2.09
1.74
Stability score
10.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
29
4
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.86
3
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.79
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
12
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.69
0.67
Portability PPG Range
1.38
60.00
Portability Score
42.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.02
PPG0.11
GF0.23
GA-0.18
PPG3.00
PPG0.20
PPG1.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.30
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.83
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-8.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.33
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score17.96
Rest days0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO51.02
Current Opponent ELO-51.02
Current ELO Difference102.0
Expected score0.15
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shatin

L
Eastern District2–1Shatin31 Oct · away
Pick: Eastern District 59% · hit
D
Shatin2–2Hong Kong FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Shatin 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BC Rangers

D
Kowloon City2–2BC Rangers30 Oct · away
Pick: Kowloon City 43% · missed
L
BC Rangers2–4Warriors25 Oct · home
Pick: Warriors 55% · hit
L
BC Rangers0–1North District18 Oct · home
Pick: North District 56% · hit
L
BC Rangers1–3Wofoo Tai Po4 Oct · home
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 59% · hit
L
BC Rangers1–3Eastern District30 Aug · home
Pick: Eastern District 42% · hit

About this match

Shatin and BC Rangers meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 07:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shatin win 51.6%, draw 19.3%, BC Rangers win 29.1%. The pick is Shatin win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.