ScoreProb
Premier League Hong Kong SAR China Round 8 2026

Warriors vs Southern District

Warriors Home · Elo 1,604
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Southern District Away · Elo 1,458
Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground, Hongkong Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Warriors win
Warriors winPick
65.9%
Draw
20.4%
Southern District win
13.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Warriors history46 matches
Southern District history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,872 matches.

Why Warriors are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Warriors are rated 146 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,458. On rating alone Warriors would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Warriors score far more

    2.28 goals a game over 46 matches for Warriors, against 1.42 over 43 for Southern District.

  • Warriors concede fewer

    Warriors concede 1.28 a game, Southern District 1.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Warriors matches, against 63% for Southern District. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Warriors
Southern District@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.4
ELO
1458.0
46
ELO · Matches
43
1604.4
Current Team ELO
1458.0
1458.0
Current Opponent ELO
1604.4
146.4
Current ELO Difference
-146.4
0.70
Expected score
0.30
46
History Matches
43
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.05
57.78
Overperformance
46.87
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
43
1.93
PPG
1.21
56.5%
Win rate
34.9%
23.9%
Draw rate
16.3%
19.6%
Loss rate
48.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
67.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
21
1.78
PPG
0.95
52.2%
Win rate
28.6%
21.7%
Draw rate
9.5%
26.1%
Loss rate
61.9%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
23
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.28
Goals for per game
1.42
84.8%
Scoring rate
79.1%
54.3%
BTTS rate
62.8%
2.30
Goals for per game
1.24
87.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
52.2%
BTTS rate
52.4%
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
43
2.28
Goals Mean
1.42
1.75
Goals Std
1.13
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
79.1%
63.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
41.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.63
65.2%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.62
60.9%
Conceding rate
81.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
43
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.41
Conceded Std
1.10
32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.3%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
43
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.71
10.45
Stability score
7.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
43
21
Lead Matches
15
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.69
12
Trailing Matches
19
50.0%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.98
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
20
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.86
70.12
Portability Score
57.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO146.4
PPG0.73
GF0.86
GA-0.35
PPG0.00
PPG0.83
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.86
Goals Std0.63
Scored 1+ rate5.7%
Scored 2+ rate23.5%
Scored 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score2.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate19.0%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate18.4%
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score12.18
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.67
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.08
Current Team ELO146.4
Current Opponent ELO-146.4
Current ELO Difference292.7
Expected score0.40
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance10.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Warriors

W
BC Rangers2–4Warriors25 Oct · away
Pick: Warriors 55% · hit
L
Warriors1–5Kitchee19 Oct · home
Pick: Warriors 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Southern District

L
Eastern5–3Southern District24 Oct · away
Pick: Eastern 55% · hit
L
Wofoo Tai Po4–2Southern District19 Oct · away
Pick: Wofoo Tai Po 50% · hit
W
Southern District2–1Kowloon City29 Aug · home
Pick: Southern District 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Warriors and Southern District meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground, Hongkong. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Warriors win 65.9%, draw 20.4%, Southern District win 13.6%. The pick is Warriors win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.