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Persha Liga Ukraine Round 16 2026

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

SK Poltava Home · Elo 1,420
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ahrobiznes Volochysk Away · Elo 1,535
Lokomotyv Stadium, Poltava Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SK Poltava win
SK Poltava winPick
47.8%
Draw
20.6%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

SK Poltava history49 matches
Ahrobiznes Volochysk history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why SK Poltava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ahrobiznes Volochysk are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,420. On rating alone Ahrobiznes Volochysk would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Ahrobiznes Volochysk score more

    1.00 goals a game over 49 matches for SK Poltava, against 1.18 over 49 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk.

  • Ahrobiznes Volochysk concede fewer

    SK Poltava concede 1.96 a game, Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.10.

  • SK Poltava games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of SK Poltava matches, against 43% for Ahrobiznes Volochysk. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SK Poltava
Ahrobiznes Volochysk@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1420.4
ELO
1535.3
49
ELO · Matches
49
1420.4
Current Team ELO
1535.3
1535.3
Current Opponent ELO
1420.4
-114.9
Current ELO Difference
114.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
49
History Matches
49
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
43.77
Overperformance
52.11
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
0.86
PPG
1.55
20.4%
Win rate
44.9%
24.5%
Draw rate
20.4%
55.1%
Loss rate
34.7%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
26
0.91
PPG
1.27
22.7%
Win rate
34.6%
22.7%
Draw rate
23.1%
54.5%
Loss rate
42.3%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
22
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.18
59.2%
Scoring rate
65.3%
44.9%
BTTS rate
30.6%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.23
59.1%
Scoring rate
57.7%
40.9%
BTTS rate
34.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.00
Goals Mean
1.18
1.05
Goals Std
1.24
59.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.96
Goals against per game
1.10
79.6%
Conceding rate
51.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.31
77.3%
Conceding rate
57.7%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.96
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.54
Conceded Std
1.33
59.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
49.0%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
49.0%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
49.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.91
Result entropy
0.96
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.95
9.22
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
49
11
Lead Matches
15
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.96
24
Trailing Matches
13
12.5%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
85.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
29
0.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.38
42.65
Portability Score
48.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-114.9
PPG-0.69
GF-0.18
GA0.86
PPG0.25
PPG-0.36
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.86
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate14.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.56
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score4.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.39
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-5.66
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-114.9
Current Opponent ELO114.9
Current ELO Difference-229.9
Expected score-0.32
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SK Poltava

W
Polissya II1–2SK Poltava24 Oct · away
Pick: SK Poltava 40% · hit
W
SK Poltava4–0Prykarpattia17 Oct · home
Pick: SK Poltava 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

W
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3–0Prykarpattia30 Oct · home
Pick: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 46% · hit
W
Ahrobiznes Volochysk3–2UCSA4 Oct · home
Pick: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 50% · hit
L
Kulykiv5–1Ahrobiznes Volochysk30 Aug · away
Pick: Kulykiv 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SK Poltava and Ahrobiznes Volochysk meet in Persha Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Lokomotyv Stadium, Poltava. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: SK Poltava win 47.8%, draw 20.6%, Ahrobiznes Volochysk win 31.6%. The pick is SK Poltava win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.