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Persha Liga Ukraine Round 16 2026

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol'

Viktoriya Mykolaivka Home · Elo 1,542
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yarud Mariupol' Away · Elo 1,486
Yuvileiny Stadium, Sumy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka win
Viktoriya Mykolaivka winPick
55.2%
Draw
23.6%
Yarud Mariupol' win
21.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

How much we know

Viktoriya Mykolaivka history48 matches
Yarud Mariupol' history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Viktoriya Mykolaivka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viktoriya Mykolaivka are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,486. On rating alone Viktoriya Mykolaivka would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Viktoriya Mykolaivka score more

    1.23 goals a game over 48 matches for Viktoriya Mykolaivka, against 1.04 over 49 for Yarud Mariupol'.

  • Defences are close

    Viktoriya Mykolaivka concede 1.02 a game, Yarud Mariupol' 1.12.

  • Viktoriya Mykolaivka games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Viktoriya Mykolaivka matches, against 33% for Yarud Mariupol'. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Yarud Mariupol'@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.3
ELO
1486.1
48
ELO · Matches
49
1542.3
Current Team ELO
1486.1
1486.1
Current Opponent ELO
1542.3
56.24
Current ELO Difference
-56.24
0.58
Expected score
0.42
48
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.84
Overperformance
48.37
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
49
1.48
PPG
1.22
41.7%
Win rate
30.6%
22.9%
Draw rate
30.6%
35.4%
Loss rate
38.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
14.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
27
1.61
PPG
1.19
47.8%
Win rate
25.9%
17.4%
Draw rate
40.7%
34.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
23
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.04
77.1%
Scoring rate
59.2%
43.8%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.00
78.3%
Scoring rate
59.3%
34.8%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.23
Goals Mean
1.04
0.98
Goals Std
1.11
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
59.2%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.12
60.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.15
52.2%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.75
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.03
Conceded Std
0.94
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.60
Stability score
0.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
10
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
16
10.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.92
Rest days
90.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.75
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.80
Portability PPG Range
0.92
42.89
Portability Score
61.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO56.24
PPG0.25
GF0.19
GA-0.10
PPG2.25
PPG0.42
PPG2.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate17.9%
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score2.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate2.4%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.25
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.88
Portability Score-18.71
Rest days-5.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO56.24
Current Opponent ELO-56.24
Current ELO Difference112.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

D
Prykarpattia1–1Viktoriya Mykolaivka24 Oct · away
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 41% · missed
W
Viktoriya Mykolaivka2–1Chernihiv17 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 49% · hit
L
Viktoriya Mykolaivka0–1Metal Kharkiv9 Sep · home
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 52% · missed
W
Probiy Horodenka0–3Viktoriya Mykolaivka30 Aug · away
Pick: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Yarud Mariupol'

D
Prykarpattia1–1Yarud Mariupol'7 Nov · away
Pick: Prykarpattia 48% · missed
L
Chernihiv3–1Yarud Mariupol'1 Nov · away
Pick: Chernihiv 51% · hit
W
Metal Kharkiv0–2Yarud Mariupol'23 Oct · away
Pick: Metal Kharkiv 48% · missed
W
Yarud Mariupol'4–1Inhulets17 Oct · home
Pick: Yarud Mariupol' 40% · hit
D
Yarud Mariupol'0–0Nyva Ternopil5 Oct · home
Pick: Nyva Ternopil 40% · missed

About this match

Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Yarud Mariupol' meet in Persha Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. The match is played at Yuvileiny Stadium, Sumy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Viktoriya Mykolaivka win 55.2%, draw 23.6%, Yarud Mariupol' win 21.1%. The pick is Viktoriya Mykolaivka win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.6%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.