ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Sogdiana vs Dinamo Samarqand

Sogdiana Home · Elo 1,476
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Samarqand Away · Elo 1,558
Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sogdiana win
Sogdiana winPick
39.7%
Draw
25.1%
Dinamo Samarqand win
35.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

Sogdiana history59 matches
Dinamo Samarqand history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sogdiana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Samarqand are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,476. On rating alone Dinamo Samarqand would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Samarqand score more

    1.41 goals a game over 59 matches for Sogdiana, against 1.60 over 58 for Dinamo Samarqand.

  • Dinamo Samarqand concede fewer

    Sogdiana concede 1.51 a game, Dinamo Samarqand 1.22.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Sogdiana matches, against 60% for Dinamo Samarqand. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sogdiana
Dinamo Samarqand
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.1
ELO
1557.7
59
ELO · Matches
58
1476.1
Current Team ELO
1557.7
1557.7
Current Opponent ELO
1476.1
-81.61
Current ELO Difference
81.61
0.38
Expected score
0.62
59
History Matches
58
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.71
Overperformance
53.00
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
58
1.20
PPG
1.69
33.9%
Win rate
46.6%
18.6%
Draw rate
29.3%
47.5%
Loss rate
24.1%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.63
PPG
1.58
50.0%
Win rate
45.2%
13.3%
Draw rate
22.6%
36.7%
Loss rate
32.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.60
72.9%
Scoring rate
79.3%
55.9%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.48
80.0%
Scoring rate
74.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.53
84.2%
Scoring rate
94.7%
73.7%
BTTS rate
89.5%
59
History Matches
58
1.41
Goals Mean
1.60
1.19
Goals Std
1.22
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.3%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.22
81.4%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.35
70.0%
Conceding rate
74.2%
2.05
Goals against per game
1.58
89.5%
Conceding rate
89.5%
59
History Matches
58
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.13
Conceded Std
1.03
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.7%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
5.3%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
58
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.55
5.92
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
21
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
61.9%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.73
18
Trailing Matches
13
22.2%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.98
Rest days
72.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.26
PPG
1.37
36.8%
Win rate
36.8%
15.8%
Draw rate
26.3%
47.4%
Loss rate
36.8%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
57.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.26
Current Competition PPG
1.37
-0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.45
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.13
39.65
Portability Score
52.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.61
PPG-0.49
GF-0.20
GA0.28
PPG-0.11
PPG0.05
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score2.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.38
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.32
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range1.20
Portability Score-12.91
Rest days2.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-81.61
Current Opponent ELO81.61
Current ELO Difference-163.2
Expected score-0.23
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sogdiana

D
Sogdiana1–1Buxoro30 Oct · home
Pick: Sogdiana 41% · missed
L
Nasaf2–1Sogdiana24 Oct · away
Pick: Nasaf 51% · hit
L
Sogdiana1–2Andijan20 Oct · home
Pick: Andijan 40% · hit
D
Bunyodkor1–1Sogdiana16 Oct · away
Pick: Bunyodkor 39% · missed
W
Sogdiana2–0Jayxun30 Aug · home
Pick: Sogdiana 62% · hit

Dinamo Samarqand

W
Mash'al0–3Dinamo Samarqand31 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Samarqand 57% · hit
D
Dinamo Samarqand1–1Andijan25 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Samarqand 42% · missed
L
Dinamo Samarqand1–2Buxoro17 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Samarqand 44% · missed
D
Dinamo Samarqand1–1Pakhtakor25 Aug · home
Pick: Pakhtakor 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sogdiana and Dinamo Samarqand meet in Super League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sogdiana win 39.7%, draw 25.1%, Dinamo Samarqand win 35.2%. The pick is Sogdiana win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.