Somaspor vs Sebat Gençlikspor
Somaspor
LIVE · 12'
0–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
Sebat Gençlikspor
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Sebat Gençlikspor win
Somaspor win
30.4%
Draw
20.2%
Sebat Gençlikspor winPick
49.4%
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
Nothing has happened yet. Goals, cards and substitutions appear here as they happen.
Lineups
Published about an hour before kickoff
Lineups are not provided for this competition by our data source.
Live stats
Somaspor left, Sebat Gençlikspor right
Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.
Our pre-match picks, right now
Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.
Match resultPick: Sebat Gençlikspor win · 49.4%
Level: 0–0 Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 52.6%
Needs both teams to score Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 55.8%
Needs 3 more goals The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
How much we know
Somaspor history50 matches
Sebat Gençlikspor history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Sebat Gençlikspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sebat Gençlikspor are rated 213 Elo points higher
Elo 1,621 against 1,408. On rating alone Sebat Gençlikspor would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.
-
Sebat Gençlikspor score far more
1.10 goals a game over 50 matches for Somaspor, against 2.00 over 46 for Sebat Gençlikspor.
-
Sebat Gençlikspor concede fewer
Somaspor concede 1.82 a game, Sebat Gençlikspor 0.87.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
60% of Somaspor matches, against 57% for Sebat Gençlikspor. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Somaspor
Sebat Gençlikspor
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1407.7
ELO
1621.2
50
ELO · Matches
46
1407.7
Current Team ELO
1621.2
1621.2
Current Opponent ELO
1407.7
-213.5
Current ELO Difference
213.5
0.23
Expected score
0.77
50
History Matches
46
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.13
43.64
Overperformance
58.94
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
46
0.86
PPG
2.15
22.0%
Win rate
65.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.6%
58.0%
Loss rate
15.2%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
23
0.96
PPG
1.87
28.0%
Win rate
52.2%
12.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
60.0%
Loss rate
17.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
54.0%
Scoring rate
87.0%
42.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.61
68.0%
Scoring rate
73.9%
52.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
50
History Matches
46
1.10
Goals Mean
2.00
1.49
Goals Std
1.34
54.0%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
24.0%
Scored 2+ rate
60.9%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
34.8%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.82
Goals against per game
0.87
76.0%
Conceding rate
65.2%
1.76
Goals against per game
0.91
80.0%
Conceding rate
73.9%
50
History Matches
46
1.82
Conceded Mean
0.87
1.58
Conceded Std
0.77
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.6%
32.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.2%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
0.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
46
0.88
Result entropy
0.81
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.51
11.62
Stability score
19.49
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
46
8
Lead Matches
14
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.83
18
Trailing Matches
7
11.1%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.43
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
193.0
Rest days
200.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.15
84.62
Portability Score
86.86
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-213.5
PPG-1.29
GF-0.90
GA0.95
PPG-0.91
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate33.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.90
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.95
Conceded Std0.81
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate29.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches4
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.78
Stability score-7.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.70
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-2.24
Rest days-7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.03
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.74
Current Team ELO-213.5
Current Opponent ELO213.5
Current ELO Difference-427.0
Expected score-0.55
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-15.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Somaspor
L
Somaspor0–2Çorluspor 19471 Nov · home
Pick: Çorluspor 1947 59% · hit L
Güzide Gebzespor4–1Somaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 46% · hit L
Somaspor1–2Aliağa FAŞ18 Oct · home
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 55% · hit W
Somaspor4–2Alanya 1221 FK7 Oct · home
Pick: Somaspor 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sebat Gençlikspor
W
Ankaraspor0–3Sebat Gençlikspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Ankaraspor 41% · missed W
İnegölspor1–4Sebat Gençlikspor28 Oct · away
Pick: İnegölspor 43% · missed W
Sebat Gençlikspor3–2Muş Sport Klübü24 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 40% · missed L
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik2–1Sebat Gençlikspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Sebat Gençlikspor 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Somaspor and Sebat Gençlikspor meet in 2. Lig on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Somaspor win 30.4%, draw 20.2%, Sebat Gençlikspor win 49.4%. The pick is Sebat Gençlikspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.