ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth

Sparta Praha Home · Elo 1,649
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bournemouth Away · Elo 1,593
Stadion Letná, Prague Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sparta Praha win
Sparta Praha winPick
55.1%
Draw
18.8%
Bournemouth win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%

How much we know

Sparta Praha history86 matches
Bournemouth history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sparta Praha are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sparta Praha are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,649 against 1,593. On rating alone Sparta Praha would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Sparta Praha score more

    1.84 goals a game over 86 matches for Sparta Praha, against 1.60 over 68 for Bournemouth.

  • Sparta Praha concede fewer

    Sparta Praha concede 1.16 a game, Bournemouth 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Sparta Praha matches, against 57% for Bournemouth. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Praha
Bournemouth
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1648.8
ELO
1593.2
86
ELO · Matches
68
1648.8
Current Team ELO
1593.2
1593.2
Current Opponent ELO
1648.8
55.62
Current ELO Difference
-55.62
0.58
Expected score
0.42
86
History Matches
68
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
56.54
Overperformance
55.43
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
3.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.74
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
68
1.86
PPG
1.35
57.0%
Win rate
32.4%
15.1%
Draw rate
38.2%
27.9%
Loss rate
29.4%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
62.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
33.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
34
2.37
PPG
1.35
73.2%
Win rate
32.4%
17.1%
Draw rate
38.2%
9.8%
Loss rate
29.4%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
70.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.5%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
41
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.84
Goals for per game
1.60
81.4%
Scoring rate
80.9%
52.3%
BTTS rate
66.2%
2.37
Goals for per game
1.68
92.7%
Scoring rate
88.2%
58.5%
BTTS rate
73.5%
86
History Matches
68
1.84
Goals Mean
1.60
1.31
Goals Std
1.50
81.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
59.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
29.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
2.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
1.44
65.1%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.74
61.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
86
History Matches
68
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.16
Conceded Std
1.14
32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
68
0.88
Result entropy
0.99
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.80
12.41
Stability score
0.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
67
32
Lead Matches
26
96.9%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.65
22
Trailing Matches
20
22.7%
Non-loss rate
35.0%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.11
Rest days
74.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.93
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
54
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
17
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.00
63.75
Portability Score
58.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO55.62
PPG0.51
GF0.23
GA-0.28
PPG1.01
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.20
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.74
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score11.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate43.0%
Lead Points Retention0.31
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate3.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score5.53
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.93
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO55.62
Current Opponent ELO-55.62
Current ELO Difference111.2
Expected score0.16
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sparta Praha

D
Bohemians 19050–0Sparta Praha1 Nov · away
Pick: Sparta Praha 46% · missed
L
Sparta Praha0–2Baník Ostrava28 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Praha 50% · missed
W
Sparta Praha5–1Slovácko25 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Praha 70% · hit
L
Olympiakos Piraeus1–0Sparta Praha22 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% · hit
D
Baník Ostrava0–0Sparta Praha18 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Praha 46% · missed

Bournemouth

W
Bournemouth2–0Leeds31 Oct · home
Pick: Leeds 41% · missed
W
Bournemouth3–0Aston Villa28 Oct · home
Pick: Aston Villa 52% · missed
W
Manchester United0–3Bournemouth25 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United 45% · missed
W
Bournemouth3–0AC Milan22 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 41% · missed
W
Bournemouth2–0Sunderland18 Oct · home
Pick: Bournemouth 46% · hit

About this match

Sparta Praha and Bournemouth meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Letná, Prague. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Sparta Praha win 55.1%, draw 18.8%, Bournemouth win 26.1%. The pick is Sparta Praha win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.3%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.