ScoreProb
Primeira Liga Portugal Round 11 2026

Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Sporting CP Home · Elo 1,723
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Moreirense Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting CP win
Sporting CP winPick
70.0%
Draw
21.3%
Moreirense win
8.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.3%
Under 2.530.7%

How much we know

Sporting CP history87 matches
Moreirense history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Sporting CP are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sporting CP are rated 248 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,723 against 1,475. On rating alone Sporting CP would be expected to take 81% of the points on offer.

  • Sporting CP score far more

    2.22 goals a game over 87 matches for Sporting CP, against 1.15 over 61 for Moreirense.

  • Sporting CP concede fewer

    Sporting CP concede 0.87 a game, Moreirense 1.49.

  • Sporting CP games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Sporting CP matches, against 51% for Moreirense. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting CP
Moreirense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1722.7
ELO
1474.7
87
ELO · Matches
61
1722.7
Current Team ELO
1474.7
1474.7
Current Opponent ELO
1722.7
247.9
Current ELO Difference
-247.9
0.81
Expected score
0.19
87
History Matches
61
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.02
61.16
Overperformance
48.83
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.00
3.30
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
61
2.15
PPG
1.20
63.2%
Win rate
31.1%
25.3%
Draw rate
26.2%
11.5%
Loss rate
42.6%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
64.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
50
Matches
29
2.30
PPG
0.83
72.0%
Win rate
20.7%
14.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
14.0%
Loss rate
58.6%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
50
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.22
Goals for per game
1.15
90.8%
Scoring rate
70.5%
57.5%
BTTS rate
50.8%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
92.0%
Scoring rate
65.5%
52.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
87
History Matches
61
2.22
Goals Mean
1.15
1.50
Goals Std
0.96
90.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.5%
62.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.4%
39.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.49
63.2%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.76
60.0%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
87
History Matches
61
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.49
0.81
Conceded Std
1.14
20.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.8%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.0%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
9.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
9.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
61
0.81
Result entropy
0.98
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.54
19.33
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
58
43
Lead Matches
12
79.1%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.75
10
Trailing Matches
15
70.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
83.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
68
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
15
Long Rest History Matches
28
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
0.50
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
11
Competition Season Count
6
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.09
2.33
Portability PPG Range
0.27
44.14
Portability Score
84.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO247.9
PPG0.95
GF1.07
GA-0.62
PPG1.83
PPG1.47
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches26
Goals Mean1.07
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate20.3%
Scored 2+ rate27.6%
Scored 3+ rate29.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches26
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches26
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score17.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches29
Lead Matches31
Lead Win Rate12.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches29
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range2.07
Portability Score-39.96
Rest days-6.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches38
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.91
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO247.9
Current Opponent ELO-247.9
Current ELO Difference495.9
Expected score0.61
History Matches26
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance12.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sporting CP

W
Shakhtar Donetsk0–1Sporting CP3 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting CP 42% · hit
W
Casa Pia0–2Sporting CP30 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP 69% · hit
W
Sporting CP2–1Maritimo27 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP 65% · hit
L
Sporting CP1–2Academico Viseu25 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP 67% · missed
L
Sporting CP2–3Lask Linz21 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP 59% · missed

Moreirense

W
Moreirense2–1Estrela31 Oct · home
Pick: Estrela 38% · missed
W
Estoril1–3Moreirense25 Oct · away
Pick: Estoril 51% · missed
W
Casa Pia0–1Moreirense30 Aug · away
Pick: Moreirense 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sporting CP and Moreirense meet in Primeira Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sporting CP win 70.0%, draw 21.3%, Moreirense win 8.6%. The pick is Sporting CP win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.3%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.